Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-09-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122213 20303 1582 852 70 9 0 0
OW 12 760 685 837 139 7 0 0
VODI 0 183 402 1560 767 73 0 0
ODI 0 19 56 907 2499 1026 6 0
CDI 0 2 3 127 1683 11165 1144 0
VCDI 0 6 0 15 36 7175 10281 444
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122834 19431 1189 777 71 0 0 0
OW 0 991 636 868 230 13 0 0
VODI 0 263 446 1472 825 181 0 0
ODI 0 17 75 794 1544 963 21 0
CDI 0 4 5 172 1307 10032 2025 0
VCDI 0 4 3 12 77 5030 13587 1149
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119729 22435 1598 1063 118 1 0 0
OW 0 397 638 955 232 13 0 0
VODI 0 59 201 1447 1015 131 0 0
ODI 0 1 17 391 1751 702 15 0
CDI 0 2 1 90 729 6745 1726 0
VCDI 0 5 0 42 115 6053 17242 1389
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121830 19963 1238 915 152 30 8 0
OW 1 893 679 882 254 8 0 0
VODI 0 135 279 1311 1035 157 0 0
ODI 0 6 26 410 1372 615 30 0
CDI 0 0 6 121 630 4372 1145 0
VCDI 0 5 2 106 273 5618 21032 1509
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121831 20117 1415 1039 219 30 8 0
OW 0 749 525 765 231 16 0 0
VODI 0 125 257 1221 910 166 4 0
ODI 0 6 26 523 1364 601 40 0
CDI 0 0 5 98 716 4173 1232 0
VCDI 0 5 2 99 276 5814 20931 1509

Date: 2022-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122609 17947 788 1006 258 9 1 0
OW 2 1557 544 855 532 51 0 0
VODI 0 355 238 933 1104 273 1 0
ODI 0 59 75 332 1076 866 22 0
CDI 0 10 27 165 721 2644 636 0
VCDI 0 5 1 90 508 14860 15543 345
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122610 18315 965 1103 376 12 0 0
OW 1 1150 349 820 436 59 1 0
VODI 0 385 248 834 1043 242 2 0
ODI 0 62 77 366 1046 798 31 0
CDI 0 16 30 172 821 2470 645 0
VCDI 0 5 4 86 477 15122 15524 345

Date: 2022-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121172 19694 1604 866 89 2 0 0
OW 1 514 496 902 276 18 1 0
VODI 0 144 191 1004 914 131 0 0
ODI 0 11 29 348 1519 543 3 0
CDI 0 3 12 94 762 3685 426 0
VCDI 0 2 1 21 170 12340 18731 329
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121173 18261 1336 758 206 64 1 0
OW 0 1417 528 833 464 108 2 0
VODI 0 543 293 920 878 308 4 0
ODI 0 108 95 355 1054 782 60 0
CDI 0 31 68 289 711 1908 569 0
VCDI 0 8 13 80 417 13549 18525 329

Date: 2022-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122340 17848 987 839 223 182 0 0
OW 0 614 432 989 408 207 2 0
VODI 0 108 154 606 1168 382 3 0
ODI 0 26 45 187 954 910 13 0
CDI 0 16 30 128 604 2659 928 0
VCDI 0 1 1 7 193 12150 20680 24
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122340 16307 696 647 283 300 0 0
OW 0 1369 350 637 581 281 6 0
VODI 0 752 422 964 845 599 61 0
ODI 0 120 98 280 920 865 129 0
CDI 0 51 70 179 638 1869 719 0
VCDI 0 14 13 49 283 12576 20711 24

Date: 2022-09-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120284 19073 824 695 228 33 0 0
OW 9 1043 514 880 601 63 0 0
VODI 0 149 244 694 1161 331 10 0
ODI 0 29 69 268 982 715 26 0
CDI 0 6 39 172 803 2229 592 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 259 12352 21599 55
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120283 17761 611 584 565 127 0 0
OW 10 1401 361 428 524 127 8 0
VODI 0 913 434 865 971 758 55 0
ODI 0 163 190 509 651 767 125 0
CDI 0 58 70 263 886 1333 599 0
VCDI 0 4 24 77 437 12611 21440 55


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