Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-09-15

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118580 22123 2179 1111 124 23 0 0
OW 0 416 943 1305 121 7 0 0
VODI 0 88 345 2284 1014 101 5 0
ODI 0 5 45 1285 4315 1956 94 0
CDI 0 8 19 309 3584 9212 1252 0
VCDI 0 3 4 17 364 7862 5563 382
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120280 20660 1762 992 111 13 0 0
OW 0 677 995 1170 189 3 0 0
VODI 0 180 437 1889 1129 103 0 0
ODI 0 12 51 1113 3557 1716 43 0
CDI 0 4 9 351 2758 10368 1402 0
VCDI 0 6 3 18 171 8257 6186 433
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121154 21210 2127 1155 64 13 0 0
OW 0 323 527 972 177 16 0 0
VODI 0 68 217 1695 921 120 0 0
ODI 0 5 19 633 4428 1193 2 0
CDI 0 6 0 108 1818 11440 1127 0
VCDI 0 2 4 11 56 7931 7466 40
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122620 19976 1691 955 37 10 0 0
OW 0 590 747 858 122 0 0 0
VODI 0 138 325 1684 744 43 0 0
ODI 0 21 43 850 3012 1087 10 0
CDI 0 2 3 108 1841 11309 1242 0
VCDI 0 5 2 17 43 8106 8595 212
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122620 19941 1721 1150 64 10 0 0
OW 0 592 692 782 136 0 0 0
VODI 0 167 331 1406 708 40 0 0
ODI 0 25 62 989 2409 774 10 0
CDI 0 2 3 131 2445 11732 1208 0
VCDI 0 5 2 14 37 7999 8629 212

Date: 2022-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121848 20656 1364 756 64 7 4 0
OW 36 891 706 810 137 10 0 0
VODI 3 224 440 1592 724 103 0 0
ODI 0 17 71 886 1910 1082 6 0
CDI 0 4 5 162 1515 10650 1446 0
VCDI 0 4 3 8 49 6012 12202 641
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121837 20496 1396 976 107 7 4 0
OW 44 1027 625 601 154 23 0 0
VODI 6 246 476 1444 612 97 0 0
ODI 0 19 80 991 1594 768 3 0
CDI 0 4 9 182 1824 10741 1569 0
VCDI 0 4 3 20 108 6228 12082 641

Date: 2022-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122761 19901 1450 876 49 0 0 0
OW 0 394 703 899 137 3 0 0
VODI 0 47 191 1756 824 68 0 0
ODI 0 3 17 409 1996 699 1 0
CDI 0 2 3 44 665 8749 1658 0
VCDI 0 4 1 7 47 5631 16315 738
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 122761 19069 1360 962 179 17 0 0
OW 0 990 500 697 233 57 0 0
VODI 0 270 431 1447 676 188 0 0
ODI 0 16 67 690 1230 801 31 0
CDI 0 2 6 174 1109 8455 2688 0
VCDI 0 4 1 21 291 5632 15255 738

Date: 2022-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121231 20705 1383 1081 156 14 9 0
OW 0 630 633 900 268 15 0 0
VODI 0 79 267 1460 956 120 2 0
ODI 0 4 27 393 1616 631 30 0
CDI 0 2 3 134 798 5155 1855 0
VCDI 0 5 3 72 201 5446 19378 1386
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121231 19561 1426 1137 273 18 9 0
OW 0 1371 374 642 338 50 0 0
VODI 0 428 351 1199 767 191 22 0
ODI 0 53 131 617 1055 588 89 0
CDI 0 7 31 286 1111 4957 2374 0
VCDI 0 5 3 159 451 5577 18780 1386

Date: 2022-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123577 17766 1125 808 180 21 2 0
OW 2 1238 592 936 321 24 0 0
VODI 0 226 262 1203 1022 214 0 0
ODI 0 11 53 433 1093 722 27 0
CDI 0 0 5 146 574 3268 911 0
VCDI 0 5 2 111 363 9699 19257 849
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123578 17265 1250 945 398 57 2 0
OW 1 1265 370 676 265 132 0 0
VODI 0 515 234 971 823 391 12 0
ODI 0 146 105 438 775 632 142 0
CDI 0 50 78 356 736 3170 1514 0
VCDI 0 5 2 251 556 9566 18527 849


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