Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-09-01

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112924 22594 2038 1004 61 0 0 0
OW 0 676 735 1468 107 0 0 0
VODI 0 148 512 4010 1172 41 1 0
ODI 0 5 37 1741 5896 888 18 0
CDI 0 8 7 233 7154 8517 832 0
VCDI 0 3 1 4 158 4577 8591 887
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108375 25700 3845 800 53 5 1 0
OW 0 820 1002 1225 81 3 0 0
VODI 0 218 821 3763 913 76 8 0
ODI 0 15 40 1982 5721 790 58 0
CDI 0 8 3 389 6901 8465 717 14
VCDI 0 1 1 2 42 4969 8837 384
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107682 26873 4088 2574 337 0 0 0
OW 0 376 746 1281 89 4 0 0
VODI 0 91 491 3506 915 37 3 0
ODI 0 9 19 1522 8689 1507 59 0
CDI 0 10 2 205 2913 8292 1020 1
VCDI 0 0 0 2 26 5996 7074 609
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111335 26606 2591 1251 69 7 1 0
OW 0 523 687 1228 90 5 0 0
VODI 0 138 608 2908 1170 127 0 0
ODI 0 12 47 1604 6735 2680 237 0
CDI 0 7 4 281 2751 8183 1075 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 119 6257 6818 892
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111335 26670 2718 1363 76 7 1 0
OW 0 445 615 1206 106 4 0 0
VODI 0 147 546 2883 1204 152 0 0
ODI 0 18 53 1567 6706 2616 241 0
CDI 0 6 5 253 2698 8104 868 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 144 6376 7021 892

Date: 2022-09-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114438 23469 2693 1099 101 10 2 0
OW 0 668 921 1079 78 2 0 0
VODI 0 166 709 3037 742 69 22 0
ODI 0 13 44 1976 6508 1845 73 0
CDI 0 12 38 533 3528 7152 1826 0
VCDI 0 0 1 9 342 6399 6916 528
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114438 23581 2776 1217 115 10 2 0
OW 0 525 880 1096 95 8 0 0
VODI 0 192 657 2996 811 62 24 0
ODI 0 19 55 1869 6273 1737 76 0
CDI 0 11 37 547 3618 7027 1696 0
VCDI 0 0 1 8 387 6633 7041 528

Date: 2022-09-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113863 25152 3594 1360 79 7 0 0
OW 0 302 705 1387 62 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 243 3184 965 20 0 0
ODI 0 5 32 1431 7078 1606 10 0
CDI 0 9 13 228 2931 8871 679 4
VCDI 0 2 4 7 210 6015 6267 664
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 113863 24454 2662 1005 119 9 0 0
OW 0 746 917 920 90 30 0 0
VODI 0 277 851 2569 680 89 1 0
ODI 0 38 122 2274 5187 1499 23 0
CDI 0 12 34 803 4546 6856 591 24
VCDI 0 2 5 26 703 8036 6341 644

Date: 2022-09-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118559 21524 2631 1379 193 10 0 0
OW 0 311 645 1348 130 11 0 0
VODI 0 66 239 2592 940 139 1 0
ODI 0 10 35 1591 5164 1930 137 0
CDI 0 10 27 255 3157 8745 1582 0
VCDI 0 2 0 18 192 7354 5473 648
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118559 20782 1706 1006 150 9 0 0
OW 0 705 866 843 152 38 11 0
VODI 0 339 746 2214 659 106 47 0
ODI 0 76 222 2138 3817 1760 70 0
CDI 0 19 28 925 4435 6658 1119 5
VCDI 0 2 9 57 563 9618 5946 643

Date: 2022-09-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118580 22123 2179 1111 124 23 0 0
OW 0 416 943 1305 121 7 0 0
VODI 0 88 345 2284 1014 101 5 0
ODI 0 5 45 1285 4315 1956 94 0
CDI 0 8 19 309 3584 9212 1252 0
VCDI 0 3 4 17 364 7862 5563 382
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 118580 21208 1376 806 135 35 0 0
OW 0 874 866 708 132 22 14 0
VODI 0 465 894 1899 676 89 42 0
ODI 0 84 364 1871 3338 1567 76 0
CDI 0 7 19 946 4414 7067 732 0
VCDI 0 5 16 81 827 10381 6050 382


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