Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-08-25

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6476 11363 1719 552 73 0 0 0
OW 0 234 539 692 97 16 0 0
VODI 0 64 161 2422 574 48 0 0
ODI 0 11 20 1006 2428 972 15 0
CDI 0 4 2 20 1943 4078 1970 106
VCDI 0 2 0 3 26 710 5028 2492
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4918 12886 1672 785 65 1 0 0
OW 0 394 597 682 98 2 0 0
VODI 0 132 178 2198 554 28 0 0
ODI 0 47 29 954 2185 852 0 0
CDI 0 7 3 34 1835 4323 2075 12
VCDI 0 6 1 6 35 507 6127 1638
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9757 10581 1149 538 63 0 0 0
OW 0 309 362 586 81 0 0 0
VODI 0 64 255 2029 567 58 0 0
ODI 0 6 6 384 1771 800 27 0
CDI 0 2 0 18 1244 4375 940 0
VCDI 0 4 0 4 31 1002 7272 1581
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11714 8816 1559 575 22 0 0 0
OW 0 234 384 756 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 174 2051 426 7 0 0
ODI 0 3 1 506 1846 307 0 0
CDI 0 7 3 33 1954 4030 357 0
VCDI 0 4 1 5 34 2416 6799 752
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11714 8778 1625 669 25 0 0 0
OW 0 285 338 773 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 27 152 1905 394 6 0 0
ODI 0 3 3 538 1867 278 2 0
CDI 0 9 3 36 1961 4121 375 0
VCDI 0 2 1 5 35 2355 6779 752

Date: 2022-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7985 11629 2589 689 12 0 0 0
OW 0 165 530 928 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 150 2025 269 14 0 0
ODI 0 4 3 656 1833 180 32 0
CDI 0 2 5 92 1984 3354 811 3
VCDI 0 2 2 3 10 1923 7676 258
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7985 11647 2707 824 15 0 0 0
OW 0 142 434 819 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 128 1942 263 14 3 0
ODI 0 2 3 720 1735 195 31 0
CDI 0 4 5 85 2085 3347 830 2
VCDI 0 0 2 3 10 1915 7655 259

Date: 2022-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7987 11574 3779 1026 52 7 1 0
OW 0 55 275 908 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 38 94 1885 344 5 1 0
ODI 0 1 1 517 2725 237 35 0
CDI 0 6 2 43 1110 2951 371 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 15 2913 6049 812
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7987 11473 3181 781 57 7 1 0
OW 0 139 539 606 54 1 1 0
VODI 0 54 421 1639 145 12 22 0
ODI 0 2 8 1058 1491 104 87 0
CDI 0 6 1 294 2525 2921 491 22
VCDI 0 0 1 1 15 3068 5855 796

Date: 2022-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6292 14390 3331 931 19 0 0 0
OW 0 140 252 689 52 2 0 0
VODI 0 39 268 1550 278 14 3 0
ODI 0 1 1 762 2130 388 54 0
CDI 0 5 2 71 1110 2545 515 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 24 3635 6014 357
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6292 14160 2638 721 35 0 0 0
OW 0 247 560 400 43 6 4 0
VODI 0 158 575 1285 166 14 43 0
ODI 0 4 78 1116 1228 148 89 0
CDI 0 5 2 478 2119 2732 555 0
VCDI 0 1 1 5 22 3684 5895 357

Date: 2022-09-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13386 9420 1627 706 17 8 1 0
OW 0 190 335 610 44 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 298 1406 221 48 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 829 1662 618 19 0
CDI 0 7 6 118 1270 2241 518 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 130 3893 5445 735
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13386 9086 951 555 37 10 1 0
OW 0 367 453 285 48 24 0 0
VODI 0 205 669 1130 140 89 3 0
ODI 0 0 185 1072 880 284 49 0
CDI 0 8 10 630 2040 2237 581 25
VCDI 0 0 0 4 199 4164 5349 710


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