Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-08-18

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95067 32594 4029 1832 80 0 0 0
OW 3 437 695 1299 226 0 0 0
VODI 2 116 379 2627 1280 113 5 0
ODI 0 11 58 2249 7489 2177 34 0
CDI 0 2 12 320 4468 15571 3098 0
VCDI 0 6 0 3 20 2515 7926 305
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108207 21786 2429 1452 155 1 0 0
OW 1 637 679 982 309 44 0 0
VODI 1 238 518 2506 1552 284 6 0
ODI 0 14 102 2415 6621 2414 137 0
CDI 0 3 10 387 5590 13351 4186 0
VCDI 0 5 0 2 43 2233 7694 54
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 101238 29158 2769 1547 117 5 0 0
OW 1 530 790 997 162 24 0 0
VODI 0 164 366 3478 1119 70 0 0
ODI 0 15 42 1821 7960 3016 38 0
CDI 0 5 8 104 3254 11804 3963 0
VCDI 0 4 0 0 10 3008 9461 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86886 40190 6477 1407 135 2 0 0
OW 0 641 832 947 225 15 0 0
VODI 0 223 443 3627 1422 148 0 0
ODI 0 16 74 1993 6755 3479 54 0
CDI 0 10 6 188 3873 11805 3237 0
VCDI 0 1 0 2 93 2836 8900 106
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86886 40231 6564 1540 163 2 0 0
OW 0 586 736 894 220 17 0 0
VODI 0 228 432 3432 1466 202 2 0
ODI 0 25 94 2111 6394 3260 22 0
CDI 0 10 6 185 4160 11690 3151 0
VCDI 0 1 0 2 100 3114 9016 106

Date: 2022-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96438 34417 3149 1046 115 1 0 0
OW 0 872 870 1114 165 10 1 0
VODI 0 508 451 3756 1463 209 6 0
ODI 0 72 162 1798 6017 3675 44 0
CDI 0 6 13 202 3930 10904 3789 0
VCDI 0 4 0 4 79 2131 8749 878
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96438 34473 3244 1225 125 1 0 0
OW 0 780 751 1047 198 12 1 0
VODI 0 498 471 3554 1465 234 4 0
ODI 0 112 165 1877 5738 3530 37 0
CDI 0 12 14 213 4167 10815 3612 0
VCDI 0 4 0 4 76 2338 8935 878

Date: 2022-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102641 29109 4167 1347 121 2 0 0
OW 0 578 863 1085 143 1 0 0
VODI 0 114 409 4116 1262 25 0 0
ODI 0 9 21 1301 6890 1543 13 0
CDI 0 3 0 113 3207 12669 1363 0
VCDI 0 5 0 3 29 1787 10073 2036
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 102641 28235 3530 1266 176 3 0 0
OW 0 985 953 1012 266 14 0 0
VODI 0 494 798 3316 1488 287 0 0
ODI 0 80 176 2061 5224 3224 40 0
CDI 0 16 3 305 4473 11298 2944 11
VCDI 0 8 0 5 25 1201 8465 2025

Date: 2022-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111316 23472 2556 937 102 2 0 0
OW 0 586 798 1094 111 0 0 0
VODI 0 99 545 4102 1243 57 0 0
ODI 0 3 27 1449 6053 1175 36 0
CDI 0 9 6 158 4768 11080 1442 0
VCDI 0 3 3 6 45 2880 8677 2208
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 111316 22307 1937 838 163 9 0 0
OW 0 1151 887 977 224 15 0 0
VODI 0 616 915 3163 1458 333 0 0
ODI 0 74 182 2343 5611 1945 62 0
CDI 0 19 11 418 4826 10622 2404 251
VCDI 0 5 3 7 40 2270 7689 1957

Date: 2022-08-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112924 22594 2038 1004 61 0 0 0
OW 0 676 735 1468 107 0 0 0
VODI 0 148 512 4010 1172 41 1 0
ODI 0 5 37 1741 5896 888 18 0
CDI 0 8 7 233 7154 8517 832 0
VCDI 0 3 1 4 158 4577 8591 887
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112923 21388 1655 920 147 15 0 0
OW 1 1220 797 1320 259 34 0 0
VODI 0 678 641 3235 1599 195 1 0
ODI 0 131 215 2456 5372 1477 91 2
CDI 0 12 21 525 7113 8049 1094 398
VCDI 0 5 1 4 58 4253 8256 487


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