Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-07-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72458 33863 7681 3636 459 27 0 0
OW 6 469 730 1964 689 22 0 0
VODI 0 149 371 2342 1513 129 0 0
ODI 0 46 115 944 2871 1659 9 0
CDI 0 61 70 629 7459 17513 2668 0
VCDI 0 17 25 58 1437 17720 7198 41
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78681 31219 6295 2613 475 26 0 0
OW 5 585 738 1891 598 51 0 0
VODI 0 248 449 1998 1317 103 0 0
ODI 0 88 168 946 3245 1255 28 0
CDI 0 93 104 686 7819 20266 1746 0
VCDI 0 5 0 20 1797 14938 6552 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75155 37259 5948 2700 421 44 0 0
OW 5 458 610 1681 359 20 0 0
VODI 0 126 357 2295 1395 49 0 0
ODI 0 51 126 1026 5766 1238 2 0
CDI 0 5 57 303 9568 18322 1882 0
VCDI 0 4 0 7 1133 13022 5654 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82263 28898 7181 3675 632 20 0 0
OW 0 595 638 1546 355 13 0 0
VODI 0 240 346 2000 1478 69 0 0
ODI 0 117 117 1015 4868 2018 41 0
CDI 0 18 38 367 8006 19512 3105 0
VCDI 0 4 1 4 1072 10383 6413 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 82263 28968 7234 3797 642 19 0 0
OW 0 513 591 1490 399 14 0 0
VODI 0 256 339 1902 1359 72 0 0
ODI 0 117 111 1015 4745 2199 25 0
CDI 0 14 45 401 8236 19208 3105 0
VCDI 0 4 1 2 1030 10503 6429 0

Date: 2022-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78384 35446 5607 3628 523 7 0 0
OW 1 936 613 1405 251 6 1 0
VODI 0 431 394 1805 1251 114 0 0
ODI 0 91 169 1056 4487 2421 116 0
CDI 0 11 46 569 7716 17705 5632 0
VCDI 0 4 0 1 829 10127 5265 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78384 35599 5668 3689 545 8 0 0
OW 1 748 563 1360 264 7 1 0
VODI 0 447 386 1751 1234 121 2 0
ODI 0 103 160 1050 4320 2398 77 0
CDI 0 18 51 613 7949 17623 5573 0
VCDI 0 4 1 1 745 10223 5361 0

Date: 2022-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80592 36826 5290 2900 340 2 0 0
OW 10 546 482 1131 124 2 0 0
VODI 0 240 335 2206 949 48 0 0
ODI 0 19 62 1189 5106 1286 1 0
CDI 0 1 16 293 6544 20678 2321 0
VCDI 0 4 0 23 128 8043 9311 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80589 36012 5043 2942 393 3 0 0
OW 12 795 522 1161 237 9 0 0
VODI 1 587 389 1554 1073 171 0 0
ODI 0 217 159 1148 3804 2739 187 0
CDI 0 21 71 882 7193 18676 5950 0
VCDI 0 4 1 55 491 8461 5496 0

Date: 2022-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78917 37041 7924 2927 251 0 0 0
OW 5 499 510 1130 153 11 0 0
VODI 0 273 313 1949 1141 56 0 0
ODI 0 29 91 1083 4353 1688 22 0
CDI 0 0 31 452 6133 20220 3724 0
VCDI 0 4 0 26 37 6506 9507 42
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78911 36177 7602 3001 302 4 0 0
OW 11 760 520 967 246 15 0 0
VODI 0 707 433 1294 961 268 0 0
ODI 0 169 224 1209 3408 3499 157 0
CDI 0 29 89 1036 6821 18243 6571 6
VCDI 0 4 1 60 330 6452 6525 36

Date: 2022-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86054 33829 5282 2290 279 2 0 0
OW 5 697 534 1050 250 10 0 0
VODI 0 237 317 1685 1337 96 0 0
ODI 0 35 101 1291 3976 1908 88 0
CDI 0 1 10 549 6493 20009 3432 0
VCDI 0 4 0 47 80 6163 8663 244
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86048 32972 4924 2394 344 6 0 0
OW 11 929 506 841 344 10 0 0
VODI 0 722 443 1107 1154 291 3 0
ODI 0 169 297 1291 3518 3661 223 0
CDI 0 7 74 1117 6892 19846 4120 0
VCDI 0 4 0 162 163 4374 7837 244


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