Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-07-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73386 27851 5299 2923 409 89 2 0
OW 10 353 552 1916 759 133 20 0
VODI 0 172 298 1852 1749 620 28 0
ODI 0 68 139 908 2189 1750 101 0
CDI 0 114 154 909 4608 9040 1391 0
VCDI 0 3 30 224 5054 25974 15932 39
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65163 35003 7040 3185 454 84 0 0
OW 9 298 673 2252 702 160 14 0
VODI 0 124 352 1742 1622 666 43 0
ODI 0 51 182 913 1991 1539 150 0
CDI 0 100 199 1153 5023 9070 2124 0
VCDI 0 3 22 169 4172 25246 15023 332
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70243 34045 5484 2640 218 64 0 0
OW 7 235 710 2055 376 61 0 0
VODI 0 94 316 2065 1573 298 1 0
ODI 0 71 166 1293 2851 1358 21 0
CDI 0 62 125 773 7096 11494 889 0
VCDI 0 1 5 44 2177 24335 13703 99
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74768 30330 5665 2894 282 58 0 0
OW 6 304 606 1843 567 118 0 0
VODI 0 155 356 1835 1601 546 8 0
ODI 0 110 136 946 2570 1327 42 0
CDI 0 59 172 805 6455 14248 657 0
VCDI 0 7 12 46 3353 26311 7850 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74768 30388 5755 3144 316 78 0 0
OW 6 252 504 1621 589 108 0 0
VODI 0 146 359 1829 1603 532 7 0
ODI 0 112 145 915 2495 1310 50 0
CDI 0 60 171 812 6450 14301 749 0
VCDI 0 7 13 48 3375 26279 7751 0

Date: 2022-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75373 30549 6030 2498 274 60 0 0
OW 7 380 662 1772 776 88 0 0
VODI 0 265 415 2036 1726 446 1 0
ODI 0 117 140 1044 2180 1117 42 0
CDI 0 72 210 957 7584 14481 1117 0
VCDI 0 3 2 39 2435 25337 6813 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75373 30659 6087 2745 364 70 0 0
OW 7 285 595 1593 678 111 0 0
VODI 0 248 417 1961 1777 433 7 0
ODI 0 121 150 1036 2142 959 39 0
CDI 0 69 208 975 7499 14505 1143 0
VCDI 0 4 2 36 2515 25451 6784 0

Date: 2022-07-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75594 32698 5131 2483 312 37 0 0
OW 7 326 693 1540 454 41 1 0
VODI 0 220 357 2447 1637 130 5 0
ODI 0 64 151 1192 3738 1237 24 0
CDI 0 34 83 499 7632 16388 1308 0
VCDI 0 1 2 12 1512 19512 9546 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75593 32452 5006 2762 475 62 0 0
OW 8 395 631 1579 815 122 6 0
VODI 0 288 409 1761 1825 419 17 0
ODI 0 104 125 942 1744 992 33 0
CDI 0 102 244 1094 8156 14877 1899 0
VCDI 0 2 2 35 2270 20873 8929 0

Date: 2022-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73569 33653 6687 2943 447 32 0 0
OW 8 362 615 1808 708 41 0 0
VODI 0 146 259 2379 1807 181 1 0
ODI 0 38 114 969 3601 882 18 0
CDI 0 54 107 533 8269 16715 1455 0
VCDI 0 1 0 25 800 17432 10387 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73568 33341 6409 3255 738 71 0 0
OW 9 458 661 1519 970 60 0 0
VODI 0 251 359 1786 1635 298 4 0
ODI 0 96 100 924 1959 729 21 0
CDI 0 91 221 1129 8830 15268 1915 0
VCDI 0 17 32 44 1500 18857 9921 2

Date: 2022-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72458 33863 7681 3636 459 27 0 0
OW 6 469 730 1964 689 22 0 0
VODI 0 149 371 2342 1513 129 0 0
ODI 0 46 115 944 2871 1659 9 0
CDI 0 61 70 629 7459 17513 2668 0
VCDI 0 17 25 58 1437 17720 7198 41
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72456 33530 7444 4098 860 72 0 0
OW 8 581 691 1444 782 90 2 0
VODI 0 293 447 1799 1112 332 0 0
ODI 0 74 203 995 1676 1396 20 0
CDI 0 109 179 1136 7960 15996 2788 0
VCDI 0 18 28 101 2038 19184 7065 41


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