Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-05-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63509 20137 1777 1276 549 207 70 0
OW 54 164 262 595 460 148 28 0
VODI 0 135 143 647 737 373 188 0
ODI 0 117 168 532 926 579 395 0
CDI 0 129 326 837 2022 2710 2158 88
VCDI 0 281 348 1134 2501 9753 33243 37342
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59478 22146 3656 1853 706 135 40 0
OW 53 189 222 599 475 168 59 0
VODI 0 166 162 701 805 420 212 0
ODI 0 180 143 536 991 462 426 0
CDI 0 323 295 838 2069 2802 2183 8
VCDI 0 349 473 1120 2654 9304 39671 29976
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63988 19860 1950 1705 511 159 13 0
OW 61 219 301 730 298 49 28 0
VODI 0 174 167 954 1120 266 45 0
ODI 0 170 135 685 1668 777 154 0
CDI 0 313 307 1102 2980 3988 1622 0
VCDI 0 201 240 626 1904 9788 42589 25201
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62977 20605 3004 1696 415 104 36 0
OW 61 289 340 812 385 72 25 0
VODI 0 163 174 874 1100 287 72 0
ODI 0 211 179 744 1384 674 221 0
CDI 0 242 289 1040 2537 3421 1592 5
VCDI 0 235 237 869 2101 11533 46846 19197
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62977 20633 3032 1843 551 117 35 0
OW 61 261 295 647 441 89 28 0
VODI 0 174 194 822 815 257 93 0
ODI 0 204 161 782 1407 616 242 0
CDI 0 257 313 1014 2528 3445 1645 1
VCDI 0 216 228 927 2180 11567 46749 19201

Date: 2022-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62088 21263 3278 2199 477 151 25 0
OW 60 240 397 767 480 111 26 0
VODI 0 162 181 814 924 371 121 0
ODI 0 200 202 879 1201 667 320 0
CDI 0 206 267 1098 2652 3817 1991 16
VCDI 0 230 273 890 1958 10657 48300 17089
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62088 21301 3332 2373 674 218 25 0
OW 60 216 308 552 392 122 41 0
VODI 0 164 224 784 743 270 131 0
ODI 0 186 185 905 1255 679 320 0
CDI 0 214 258 1055 2643 3911 2168 5
VCDI 0 220 291 978 1985 10574 48098 17100

Date: 2022-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63151 21727 3274 1938 304 40 3 0
OW 49 261 365 948 357 57 6 0
VODI 0 172 215 1367 1313 197 12 0
ODI 0 94 119 825 2028 1177 68 0
CDI 0 141 229 995 2588 5352 1812 2
VCDI 0 127 139 443 1142 9506 50013 14492
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63149 21502 3075 1991 665 179 6 0
OW 51 244 290 641 475 155 9 0
VODI 0 190 178 818 850 406 30 0
ODI 0 178 224 931 1208 815 137 0
CDI 0 225 310 1261 2908 4553 2707 2
VCDI 0 183 264 874 1626 10221 49025 14492

Date: 2022-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64945 21582 2887 1620 337 12 1 0
OW 44 365 373 1059 571 75 2 0
VODI 0 166 285 1241 1452 410 12 0
ODI 0 82 138 819 1497 901 174 0
CDI 0 188 241 1113 2944 4296 2925 18
VCDI 0 151 164 508 2714 12271 52010 6455
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64943 21100 2412 1498 773 169 2 0
OW 46 357 356 649 550 148 3 0
VODI 0 327 326 913 868 412 46 0
ODI 0 240 323 1040 1097 686 205 1
CDI 0 305 411 1417 2781 3727 3247 10
VCDI 0 205 260 843 3446 12823 51621 6462

Date: 2022-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69394 19012 1955 1730 411 37 2 0
OW 50 405 409 1075 857 162 5 0
VODI 0 217 332 1036 1066 420 95 0
ODI 0 104 200 682 1229 722 367 0
CDI 0 192 347 1135 3315 5108 2506 52
VCDI 0 197 272 599 1604 15920 47371 6456
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69393 18175 1461 1534 808 170 2 0
OW 51 508 284 681 543 176 31 0
VODI 0 432 425 847 748 287 327 0
ODI 0 315 399 949 991 618 342 2
CDI 0 465 575 1381 2969 5471 3286 45
VCDI 0 232 371 865 2423 15647 46358 6461


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