Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2022-05-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 7 14 22 26 21 9 0
VODI 0 23 7 69 118 85 54 0
ODI 0 18 6 38 129 201 157 0
CDI 0 34 37 198 272 531 813 27
VCDI 0 142 97 387 1008 5500 17809 18005
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 1 3 4 1 0 0
OW 0 34 22 25 51 30 15 0
VODI 0 33 18 97 129 100 69 0
ODI 0 25 17 80 159 121 146 0
CDI 0 42 38 285 521 1014 347 22
VCDI 0 106 119 336 1077 5928 18407 16444
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 5 3 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 16 22 37 23 2 0 0
VODI 0 15 34 198 170 55 7 0
ODI 0 18 41 209 345 284 50 0
CDI 0 50 47 320 688 1343 637 22
VCDI 0 121 77 240 815 2851 15307 21813
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 14 7 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 31 100 78 10 0 0
VODI 0 24 36 211 261 194 58 0
ODI 0 44 46 248 266 200 139 0
CDI 0 89 123 379 650 680 1116 45
VCDI 0 78 186 397 792 2910 13197 23225
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 12 5 9 1 0 0 0
OW 0 24 35 117 119 27 1 0
VODI 0 23 34 215 251 210 80 0
ODI 0 46 53 228 226 147 115 0
CDI 0 90 118 377 636 649 957 48
VCDI 0 76 184 399 814 2961 13357 23222

Date: 2022-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 26 19 30 23 3 0 0
OW 0 27 33 79 158 80 6 0
VODI 0 32 27 273 354 255 63 0
ODI 0 35 67 244 340 241 87 0
CDI 0 84 102 370 600 594 1006 46
VCDI 0 203 166 436 686 2934 14233 21904
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 25 30 40 56 8 0 0
OW 0 28 23 128 196 126 12 0
VODI 0 34 29 223 288 219 56 0
ODI 0 35 74 221 281 201 76 0
CDI 0 83 97 388 609 581 972 56
VCDI 0 202 161 432 731 2972 14279 21894

Date: 2022-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 62 18 11 1 0 0 0
OW 0 68 72 89 23 6 9 0
VODI 0 69 94 415 396 122 13 0
ODI 0 90 63 341 697 383 88 0
CDI 0 129 105 356 641 894 574 1
VCDI 0 95 128 293 462 2042 16552 20464
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 65 52 76 100 15 7 0
OW 0 47 68 197 216 131 30 0
VODI 0 49 41 205 273 159 113 0
ODI 0 69 44 198 263 154 98 0
CDI 0 157 86 305 575 544 668 8
VCDI 0 126 189 524 793 2444 16320 20457

Date: 2022-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 108 40 15 0 0 1 0
OW 0 107 129 249 94 16 7 0
VODI 0 60 67 293 647 123 21 0
ODI 0 89 29 216 444 282 88 0
CDI 0 123 109 398 754 770 546 3
VCDI 0 81 122 314 547 3154 19043 16777
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 105 83 132 134 52 8 0
OW 0 63 69 139 345 77 34 0
VODI 0 74 50 185 225 126 88 0
ODI 0 66 44 189 263 167 77 0
CDI 0 139 80 307 750 500 687 18
VCDI 0 121 170 533 769 3423 18812 16762

Date: 2022-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 165 107 110 22 3 5 0
OW 0 90 166 276 166 38 5 0
VODI 0 56 37 252 551 172 55 0
ODI 0 76 29 142 421 219 109 0
CDI 0 104 77 228 667 824 541 2
VCDI 0 79 173 382 534 3441 24851 10691
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 173 131 215 240 82 26 0
OW 0 53 61 129 219 80 51 0
VODI 0 60 75 192 192 97 87 0
ODI 0 44 38 147 332 123 76 0
CDI 0 152 62 198 637 695 655 45
VCDI 0 88 222 509 741 3620 24671 10648


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