Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-05-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62868 20108 1563 1138 437 91 19 0
OW 64 214 181 392 538 241 65 0
VODI 0 98 160 420 593 267 155 0
ODI 0 52 76 341 608 478 306 0
CDI 0 55 73 536 1470 1977 1601 27
VCDI 0 154 149 736 2686 12456 38272 35383
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65030 17889 1795 1213 518 173 68 0
OW 62 211 183 364 515 161 80 0
VODI 0 138 141 416 505 294 142 0
ODI 0 68 109 370 603 432 303 0
CDI 0 64 70 713 1847 2463 1390 22
VCDI 0 146 207 814 3161 12521 37484 34363
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65979 17054 2011 1120 395 182 29 0
OW 56 115 200 534 372 118 30 0
VODI 0 58 121 678 856 237 63 0
ODI 0 36 81 561 1099 731 155 0
CDI 0 79 86 853 2331 3721 1601 58
VCDI 0 170 172 708 2396 9125 32749 40128
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63460 18598 3092 1313 502 185 61 0
OW 55 167 241 666 470 138 19 0
VODI 0 132 154 614 728 370 116 0
ODI 0 104 151 578 889 666 287 0
CDI 0 143 244 948 2211 2713 1865 73
VCDI 0 215 371 1086 2501 9546 31594 39782
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63461 18600 3103 1431 626 234 69 0
OW 54 179 234 582 430 113 14 0
VODI 0 124 148 598 700 377 131 0
ODI 0 96 165 546 769 621 262 0
CDI 0 144 234 955 2167 2643 1713 75
VCDI 0 216 369 1093 2609 9630 31753 39780

Date: 2022-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63300 19340 2428 1681 749 230 61 0
OW 63 108 212 529 504 173 57 0
VODI 0 139 147 646 849 437 168 0
ODI 0 133 156 550 990 539 381 0
CDI 0 270 251 832 2080 2952 2049 46
VCDI 0 406 423 1087 2679 9460 36173 33770
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63300 19353 2456 1776 894 264 61 0
OW 63 105 185 523 467 192 71 0
VODI 0 117 158 563 775 409 155 0
ODI 0 141 154 519 852 521 339 0
CDI 0 273 240 858 2116 2869 2052 56
VCDI 0 407 424 1086 2747 9536 36211 33760

Date: 2022-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62269 20656 2386 1871 630 114 14 0
OW 53 290 250 598 233 56 23 0
VODI 0 199 241 1053 886 227 57 0
ODI 0 208 159 718 1922 795 208 0
CDI 0 349 322 1019 2708 3902 1687 1
VCDI 0 153 274 606 1689 8585 39440 30197
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62269 20640 2476 2227 890 181 43 0
OW 53 157 181 541 466 215 60 0
VODI 0 170 120 598 703 323 235 0
ODI 0 186 130 483 872 507 334 0
CDI 0 375 254 823 2289 2834 2128 8
VCDI 0 327 471 1193 2848 9619 38629 30190

Date: 2022-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63339 20498 2369 1696 468 103 24 0
OW 61 249 318 799 347 50 28 0
VODI 0 178 183 918 1180 208 63 0
ODI 0 183 156 682 1539 694 200 0
CDI 0 289 304 1123 2827 3677 1602 3
VCDI 0 196 207 715 1993 9778 42848 24953
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63339 20396 2356 2001 783 197 75 0
OW 61 170 278 450 572 138 69 0
VODI 0 183 122 656 613 304 177 0
ODI 0 164 116 590 880 608 313 0
CDI 0 300 286 879 2657 3088 1726 18
VCDI 0 380 379 1357 2849 10175 42405 24938

Date: 2022-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64393 19885 2454 1812 487 123 38 0
OW 60 251 375 803 409 88 24 0
VODI 0 176 181 821 1000 335 95 0
ODI 0 189 212 806 1279 694 242 0
CDI 0 207 272 1018 2456 3671 1649 2
VCDI 0 199 307 938 1971 10823 49883 16420
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64393 19597 2417 2086 897 288 90 0
OW 60 280 199 462 417 185 86 0
VODI 0 223 209 598 498 405 236 0
ODI 0 175 154 570 809 655 279 0
CDI 0 294 317 889 2416 2953 2117 48
VCDI 0 338 505 1593 2565 11248 49123 16374


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