Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-04-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 64495 18346 993 764 289 70 39 0
OW 53 285 218 459 450 111 6 0
VODI 0 109 107 387 596 302 74 0
ODI 0 15 44 130 455 532 109 0
CDI 0 7 22 110 562 1613 624 0
VCDI 0 0 4 76 796 5735 35158 52903
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 65988 16605 1065 990 292 64 69 0
OW 53 274 199 470 537 123 6 0
VODI 0 102 115 384 481 328 57 0
ODI 0 14 41 211 393 488 177 0
CDI 0 8 23 135 574 1337 749 1
VCDI 0 0 4 63 433 4429 36217 53549
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58496 21429 3564 1106 299 67 42 0
OW 60 137 193 561 447 52 10 0
VODI 0 43 79 422 727 274 30 0
ODI 0 11 24 170 551 567 96 0
CDI 0 2 14 149 582 1663 727 8
VCDI 0 0 0 69 573 4935 40669 48200
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58287 19846 5361 1017 300 110 24 0
OW 60 133 266 491 506 89 3 0
VODI 0 87 87 334 662 364 41 0
ODI 0 28 23 200 470 515 114 0
CDI 0 14 15 184 789 1537 807 7
VCDI 0 1 21 194 1179 8840 37558 46484
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58287 19859 5420 1102 347 110 24 0
OW 60 119 204 398 446 112 6 0
VODI 0 84 83 332 605 347 42 0
ODI 0 30 27 215 537 551 138 0
CDI 0 16 19 182 781 1523 775 20
VCDI 0 1 20 191 1190 8812 37562 46471

Date: 2022-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58451 19940 4264 1620 559 109 10 0
OW 51 319 143 476 499 119 20 0
VODI 0 101 95 379 627 370 109 0
ODI 0 26 22 195 530 469 174 0
CDI 0 32 15 206 851 1425 859 64
VCDI 0 41 52 406 1751 9011 34147 48511
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58451 19972 4274 1699 607 138 12 0
OW 51 278 140 391 433 127 31 0
VODI 0 102 86 372 607 297 104 0
ODI 0 33 26 210 563 533 178 0
CDI 0 31 12 196 845 1398 853 63
VCDI 0 43 53 414 1762 9010 34141 48512

Date: 2022-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62591 18676 2251 954 440 86 4 0
OW 63 189 213 446 354 93 4 0
VODI 7 41 91 453 667 198 35 0
ODI 0 15 21 198 883 557 152 0
CDI 0 19 35 178 893 2047 900 9
VCDI 0 17 74 249 1757 8241 38531 44416
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62598 18474 2229 1149 684 170 9 0
OW 60 316 147 264 388 159 46 0
VODI 3 101 129 333 564 293 111 0
ODI 0 13 43 197 559 513 199 0
CDI 0 18 32 207 821 1787 1127 16
VCDI 0 35 105 328 1978 8300 38134 44409

Date: 2022-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63886 18258 1381 1070 421 116 14 0
OW 59 106 150 472 363 149 25 0
VODI 0 30 55 351 754 283 89 0
ODI 0 11 19 205 608 568 163 0
CDI 0 24 26 174 965 2504 1128 40
VCDI 0 19 70 374 1356 7588 43084 40090
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 63886 17795 1286 1200 639 229 48 0
OW 59 414 136 282 315 189 59 0
VODI 0 167 128 323 557 359 105 0
ODI 0 19 31 193 581 580 199 0
CDI 0 8 30 182 842 2154 1181 53
VCDI 0 45 90 466 1533 7697 42911 40077

Date: 2022-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61662 20724 1352 958 379 146 6 0
OW 62 143 195 485 343 143 28 0
VODI 1 43 89 352 614 332 97 0
ODI 0 18 39 221 536 557 224 0
CDI 0 33 45 272 899 2250 1301 40
VCDI 0 32 65 436 1616 8063 42438 39809
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61652 20311 1345 1140 634 264 36 0
OW 73 313 120 298 322 210 64 0
VODI 0 269 122 294 477 411 164 0
ODI 0 22 76 249 391 567 271 0
CDI 0 23 31 266 735 1643 1154 83
VCDI 0 55 91 477 1828 8396 42405 39766


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