Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-03-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60814 19278 1794 1308 628 241 117 0
OW 56 553 238 292 314 198 62 0
VODI 0 261 168 405 333 346 80 0
ODI 0 128 79 312 480 460 82 0
CDI 0 135 78 196 767 1190 487 0
VCDI 0 595 323 417 1663 7578 34804 49788
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58028 20973 2354 1187 780 362 137 0
OW 52 578 255 307 249 295 77 0
VODI 0 230 221 354 382 397 94 0
ODI 0 136 71 263 426 470 145 0
CDI 0 184 58 187 736 1453 562 32
VCDI 0 498 289 460 1060 6806 34282 51618
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54678 20592 7310 1008 496 171 57 0
OW 59 225 424 373 310 92 27 0
VODI 0 125 281 461 481 239 18 0
ODI 0 54 193 349 508 408 120 0
CDI 0 122 161 261 730 1204 375 0
VCDI 0 208 245 386 1225 7614 36405 49053
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57751 20157 4472 866 417 178 40 0
OW 52 327 323 565 289 148 6 0
VODI 0 176 179 479 563 234 34 0
ODI 0 90 89 242 473 434 129 0
CDI 0 62 49 179 594 1060 456 2
VCDI 0 241 225 418 1109 8553 32723 52664
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57751 20194 4529 979 435 190 40 0
OW 52 292 281 479 334 135 3 0
VODI 0 175 172 471 568 239 30 0
ODI 0 94 84 232 456 458 100 0
CDI 0 62 51 185 569 1044 509 0
VCDI 0 236 220 403 1083 8541 32706 52666

Date: 2022-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61433 18393 2142 929 466 250 43 0
OW 53 318 269 434 369 184 27 0
VODI 0 170 158 331 616 311 62 0
ODI 0 63 85 250 516 544 111 0
CDI 0 26 48 167 611 1059 540 1
VCDI 0 94 220 422 1141 7873 34482 51837
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61433 18419 2186 1000 507 266 47 0
OW 53 291 216 363 365 172 21 0
VODI 0 168 161 328 603 322 53 0
ODI 0 73 92 259 509 540 126 0
CDI 0 35 61 171 586 1035 578 0
VCDI 0 78 206 412 1149 7886 34440 51838

Date: 2022-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62323 17564 2336 762 330 129 67 0
OW 52 311 409 517 245 113 57 0
VODI 0 112 213 648 501 192 66 0
ODI 0 50 66 262 662 481 163 0
CDI 0 9 34 103 621 1257 754 12
VCDI 0 58 152 226 933 5991 37848 50419
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 62322 17499 2379 1001 547 250 122 0
OW 53 252 291 370 263 163 85 0
VODI 0 144 202 394 356 292 161 0
ODI 0 113 87 259 384 328 264 0
CDI 0 42 86 204 467 861 554 55
VCDI 0 54 165 290 1275 6269 37769 50376

Date: 2022-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58085 20495 3940 892 273 94 80 0
OW 52 279 364 591 274 90 56 0
VODI 0 82 243 438 546 166 97 0
ODI 0 33 90 292 434 411 247 0
CDI 0 3 20 160 681 873 794 11
VCDI 0 7 129 361 1266 5525 33423 55151
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58085 20348 3974 990 513 210 211 0
OW 52 301 274 342 228 119 121 0
VODI 0 162 208 444 360 228 188 0
ODI 0 72 143 282 373 324 212 0
CDI 0 9 53 270 500 696 618 0
VCDI 0 7 134 406 1500 5582 33347 55162

Date: 2022-04-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59497 21278 1959 802 256 132 93 0
OW 52 324 293 490 341 81 42 0
VODI 0 120 216 380 450 244 97 0
ODI 0 49 73 264 390 449 253 0
CDI 0 18 22 140 632 841 690 6
VCDI 0 0 19 237 1322 5771 39739 48986
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59497 21034 1888 802 592 357 228 0
OW 52 362 240 343 235 168 85 0
VODI 0 226 224 394 334 275 180 0
ODI 0 122 133 290 311 286 256 0
CDI 0 42 76 222 524 693 676 7
VCDI 0 3 21 262 1395 5739 39489 48985


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