Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-03-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54516 24490 2150 799 385 150 139 0
OW 55 416 191 375 242 88 39 0
VODI 0 237 144 373 426 169 60 0
ODI 0 113 89 198 403 262 96 0
CDI 0 105 74 146 597 672 414 0
VCDI 0 145 130 375 954 4799 26299 65733
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57734 20523 2784 924 514 111 121 0
OW 55 426 183 410 232 36 53 0
VODI 0 207 167 351 455 94 71 0
ODI 0 100 81 239 491 167 92 0
CDI 0 59 83 313 691 576 411 0
VCDI 0 39 103 442 1682 5473 25106 65449
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59379 19024 2266 1037 550 149 89 0
OW 54 274 303 524 319 93 37 0
VODI 0 65 200 531 502 193 57 0
ODI 0 11 57 316 578 331 83 0
CDI 0 3 36 176 747 1122 561 2
VCDI 0 6 80 337 1114 4786 30790 60266
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-03-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55320 22173 3937 930 468 107 111 0
OW 54 279 454 280 296 66 31 0
VODI 0 111 350 398 365 145 44 0
ODI 0 39 116 312 355 209 85 0
CDI 0 31 48 291 588 764 266 0
VCDI 0 76 134 516 1501 5217 26384 64197
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55320 22223 3941 945 497 107 109 0
OW 54 251 438 274 248 65 32 0
VODI 0 93 355 405 371 133 35 0
ODI 0 39 118 309 376 210 79 0
CDI 0 28 54 266 589 766 234 0
VCDI 0 75 133 528 1492 5227 26432 64197

Date: 2022-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59133 17723 4887 877 465 91 93 0
OW 54 401 320 302 296 65 24 0
VODI 0 241 289 304 324 152 53 0
ODI 0 92 161 263 329 220 95 0
CDI 0 52 165 304 534 632 253 0
VCDI 0 256 310 669 1414 5991 26386 62828
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59133 17778 4882 910 489 94 93 0
OW 54 354 345 256 261 66 26 0
VODI 0 225 275 345 334 140 45 0
ODI 0 89 164 256 348 225 89 0
CDI 0 58 146 295 524 636 283 0
VCDI 0 261 320 657 1406 5990 26368 62828

Date: 2022-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61005 17057 4855 788 232 70 5 0
OW 53 515 288 373 196 44 9 0
VODI 0 213 223 507 481 149 8 0
ODI 0 51 63 325 446 302 79 0
CDI 0 43 44 189 683 769 372 6
VCDI 0 189 272 537 1267 6901 23247 64192
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61004 16648 4772 790 352 120 18 0
OW 54 582 244 270 219 71 11 0
VODI 0 346 230 339 319 168 23 0
ODI 0 160 105 330 272 199 85 0
CDI 0 85 76 351 572 618 423 4
VCDI 0 247 318 639 1571 7059 23160 64194

Date: 2022-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61530 18697 2330 1108 487 180 76 0
OW 52 545 238 276 354 97 6 0
VODI 0 202 183 327 495 225 28 0
ODI 0 71 64 226 562 326 46 0
CDI 0 81 57 168 727 905 304 0
VCDI 0 495 336 451 1815 8004 28314 56660
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61529 18243 2267 1071 617 264 88 0
OW 53 636 202 203 281 86 19 0
VODI 0 380 169 300 365 214 48 0
ODI 0 152 122 243 454 225 71 0
CDI 0 110 82 266 825 852 337 2
VCDI 0 570 366 473 1898 8096 28211 56658

Date: 2022-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60814 19278 1794 1308 628 241 117 0
OW 56 553 238 292 314 198 62 0
VODI 0 261 168 405 333 346 80 0
ODI 0 128 79 312 480 460 82 0
CDI 0 135 78 196 767 1190 487 0
VCDI 0 595 323 417 1663 7578 34804 49788
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60814 19083 1742 1249 690 296 150 0
OW 56 569 181 268 241 218 58 0
VODI 0 371 220 355 248 349 91 0
ODI 0 173 113 362 445 392 82 0
CDI 0 135 81 274 741 1079 522 14
VCDI 0 619 343 422 1820 7679 34729 49774


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