Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-02-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-02-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53601 24473 3341 1266 452 63 68 0
OW 54 420 207 383 305 81 35 0
VODI 0 237 183 331 485 173 49 0
ODI 0 100 97 210 410 244 96 0
CDI 0 81 138 215 582 806 350 8
VCDI 0 254 228 557 1151 5928 26834 62552
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 58359 20687 2410 909 377 116 83 0
OW 54 333 282 371 276 104 41 0
VODI 0 205 228 298 450 244 61 0
ODI 0 73 129 195 368 310 76 0
CDI 0 39 85 205 411 849 266 3
VCDI 0 174 210 465 1054 7265 30327 58656
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54685 21403 4784 1106 291 82 69 0
OW 55 214 355 480 283 70 32 0
VODI 0 106 213 417 477 164 46 0
ODI 0 34 109 207 472 289 101 0
CDI 0 20 64 219 605 872 406 5
VCDI 0 51 79 428 1380 6226 31373 58776
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51834 24845 4400 943 334 139 64 0
OW 59 388 253 345 220 170 21 0
VODI 2 222 200 345 322 288 37 0
ODI 0 83 125 201 285 316 78 0
CDI 0 54 107 191 339 619 230 6
VCDI 0 105 165 275 866 5289 31953 60330
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51835 24843 4393 933 342 144 64 0
OW 58 395 262 357 212 167 22 0
VODI 2 223 197 342 330 302 39 0
ODI 0 81 141 212 273 305 79 0
CDI 0 45 90 180 328 630 289 7
VCDI 0 110 167 276 881 5273 31890 60329

Date: 2022-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55787 21870 3199 934 542 160 24 0
OW 55 287 401 331 230 121 18 0
VODI 0 183 302 305 354 228 48 0
ODI 0 73 192 235 440 236 54 0
CDI 0 48 127 208 626 568 178 3
VCDI 0 236 193 505 1625 6570 31401 58151
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55787 21865 3202 930 536 163 25 0
OW 55 301 391 322 229 124 20 0
VODI 0 180 327 322 370 222 38 0
ODI 0 73 174 243 427 243 63 0
CDI 0 45 117 205 609 573 178 3
VCDI 0 233 203 496 1646 6558 31399 58151

Date: 2022-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56867 20937 3218 958 428 206 27 0
OW 54 268 366 400 211 147 11 0
VODI 0 109 244 428 449 230 24 0
ODI 0 53 110 217 456 374 58 0
CDI 0 28 105 164 540 948 312 6
VCDI 0 135 104 357 1059 5346 31228 59866
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56866 20698 3085 997 502 332 30 0
OW 55 327 304 345 247 189 23 0
VODI 0 211 247 329 350 279 71 0
ODI 0 80 177 215 338 313 80 0
CDI 0 57 157 186 481 752 273 6
VCDI 0 157 177 452 1225 5386 31183 59866

Date: 2022-03-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53489 23288 4058 1205 394 157 66 0
OW 55 407 218 361 262 67 23 0
VODI 0 245 170 383 412 129 42 0
ODI 0 100 80 214 476 248 112 0
CDI 0 94 74 200 607 623 374 16
VCDI 0 156 81 324 1265 5551 28202 62820
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53490 22900 4010 1252 600 246 89 0
OW 54 459 209 293 246 109 42 0
VODI 0 352 156 356 346 178 82 0
ODI 0 166 93 197 358 279 125 0
CDI 0 172 86 166 482 652 426 23
VCDI 0 241 127 423 1384 5311 28055 62813

Date: 2022-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54516 24490 2150 799 385 150 139 0
OW 55 416 191 375 242 88 39 0
VODI 0 237 144 373 426 169 60 0
ODI 0 113 89 198 403 262 96 0
CDI 0 105 74 146 597 672 414 0
VCDI 0 145 130 375 954 4799 26299 65733
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54516 24128 2134 841 502 263 171 0
OW 55 506 157 341 260 121 60 0
VODI 0 300 133 310 350 198 105 0
ODI 0 164 83 197 369 253 139 2
CDI 0 183 108 151 479 603 417 21
VCDI 0 225 163 426 1047 4702 26155 65710


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