Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-02-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 59383 20385 3290 794 280 126 15 0
OW 52 535 275 365 197 66 33 0
VODI 0 435 178 391 327 144 45 0
ODI 0 241 128 261 412 220 70 0
CDI 0 167 152 298 771 655 386 6
VCDI 0 430 271 591 1630 5615 29727 57701
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60422 20018 2159 802 310 113 10 0
OW 53 407 275 455 198 101 25 0
VODI 0 379 138 537 347 136 32 0
ODI 0 201 102 288 429 245 77 0
CDI 0 121 173 323 723 807 395 73
VCDI 0 268 389 521 1523 6067 27483 59923
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55043 23743 3626 861 340 115 45 0
OW 53 330 303 396 220 84 21 0
VODI 0 208 157 547 369 186 38 0
ODI 0 214 88 342 467 258 104 0
CDI 0 124 55 234 726 900 385 16
VCDI 0 220 184 475 1126 6057 24768 63620
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55209 24275 2602 874 366 78 66 0
OW 54 419 207 402 280 82 35 0
VODI 0 211 174 358 427 194 71 0
ODI 0 121 92 192 471 200 103 0
CDI 0 161 124 192 677 668 350 9
VCDI 0 302 270 507 1243 5979 25528 63475
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55209 24333 2630 945 414 81 68 0
OW 54 373 185 358 273 97 30 0
VODI 0 202 169 335 399 182 78 0
ODI 0 113 84 197 444 211 99 0
CDI 0 184 127 184 701 643 366 10
VCDI 0 284 274 506 1233 5987 25512 63474

Date: 2022-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54932 22247 4418 964 377 67 72 0
OW 54 359 285 382 270 78 45 0
VODI 0 198 273 312 487 149 46 0
ODI 0 86 147 225 448 203 79 0
CDI 0 61 109 235 546 704 263 2
VCDI 0 209 195 573 1390 6348 29261 59949
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54932 22294 4426 1049 414 82 76 0
OW 54 330 288 338 295 69 37 0
VODI 0 178 261 302 451 143 46 0
ODI 0 86 141 194 437 211 80 0
CDI 0 71 110 210 550 654 280 1
VCDI 0 201 201 598 1371 6390 29247 59950

Date: 2022-02-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57464 21469 2306 796 301 93 76 0
OW 54 432 258 436 266 94 23 0
VODI 0 212 153 443 485 186 44 0
ODI 0 64 80 238 511 363 50 0
CDI 0 22 59 176 553 1172 271 5
VCDI 0 79 108 310 794 6513 32470 57619
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57464 21515 2330 996 446 153 88 0
OW 54 317 194 347 324 126 41 0
VODI 0 209 141 258 439 239 65 0
ODI 0 88 88 187 318 387 85 0
CDI 0 60 81 210 404 849 369 22
VCDI 0 89 130 401 979 6667 32286 57602

Date: 2022-02-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54484 20984 5513 1020 356 133 55 0
OW 55 215 333 371 315 107 27 0
VODI 0 124 198 333 447 225 34 0
ODI 0 49 123 166 391 314 75 0
CDI 0 26 89 169 399 896 359 16
VCDI 0 51 99 347 1046 6332 33172 57600
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54484 20965 5456 1052 496 220 66 0
OW 55 177 319 330 360 177 41 0
VODI 0 129 208 294 359 239 66 0
ODI 0 70 112 161 326 342 117 0
CDI 0 37 124 156 347 879 466 4
VCDI 0 71 136 413 1066 6150 32966 57612

Date: 2022-02-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51510 24989 4020 1480 368 94 69 0
OW 55 358 348 309 234 114 26 0
VODI 0 224 271 323 367 188 46 0
ODI 0 106 126 281 360 216 84 0
CDI 0 84 83 199 449 573 136 0
VCDI 0 148 140 311 1224 5594 34334 57207
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 51511 25014 4043 1622 516 191 100 0
OW 54 287 281 255 288 192 44 0
VODI 0 231 251 243 362 238 109 0
ODI 0 97 155 206 291 285 101 0
CDI 0 104 101 222 382 590 244 12
VCDI 0 176 157 355 1163 5283 34097 57195


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