Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-01-27

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57595 23362 4176 714 261 105 91 0
OW 51 280 287 343 227 60 25 0
VODI 0 119 181 332 340 180 46 0
ODI 0 46 105 223 330 298 78 0
CDI 0 24 77 183 486 783 281 12
VCDI 0 79 72 322 888 5497 29862 58627
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55035 22216 7308 904 301 132 111 0
OW 61 281 257 455 199 64 36 0
VODI 0 185 184 332 342 144 85 0
ODI 0 90 125 193 386 256 96 0
CDI 0 57 134 200 693 727 242 8
VCDI 0 39 207 479 1549 5789 30906 56240
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57667 22568 4615 964 227 121 54 0
OW 59 318 326 332 168 33 13 0
VODI 0 173 295 359 350 96 8 0
ODI 0 103 161 322 422 195 42 0
CDI 0 96 112 279 865 877 228 7
VCDI 0 224 335 659 1698 7436 31490 52751
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61551 21019 1716 795 302 109 92 0
OW 60 364 220 343 187 56 44 0
VODI 0 294 209 342 387 101 86 0
ODI 0 137 143 249 422 211 101 0
CDI 0 117 165 247 626 705 503 3
VCDI 0 371 549 757 1904 7475 32494 51592
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61551 21029 1729 817 316 121 96 0
OW 60 328 191 314 176 45 42 0
VODI 0 251 227 353 382 113 86 0
ODI 0 166 135 254 425 229 101 0
CDI 0 139 159 242 636 709 516 4
VCDI 0 389 561 753 1893 7440 32479 51591

Date: 2022-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57613 23054 2966 929 324 106 126 0
OW 61 378 196 355 190 63 57 0
VODI 0 249 168 311 387 120 72 0
ODI 0 117 106 269 492 222 115 0
CDI 0 101 90 281 718 576 320 55
VCDI 0 97 208 1110 1936 6775 27329 58406
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57613 23103 2970 969 329 110 132 0
OW 61 323 183 297 200 59 49 0
VODI 0 231 175 320 364 122 77 0
ODI 0 93 109 282 511 236 105 0
CDI 0 108 68 260 723 613 347 65
VCDI 0 138 229 1127 1920 6722 27309 58396

Date: 2022-01-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57438 22111 4568 789 195 109 30 0
OW 61 259 270 448 181 49 36 0
VODI 0 125 128 422 467 139 67 0
ODI 0 60 71 224 541 303 90 0
CDI 0 24 30 173 629 741 294 0
VCDI 0 68 76 227 1662 6472 25658 61813
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57438 21828 4477 814 266 161 48 0
OW 61 317 219 316 156 80 52 0
VODI 0 207 163 361 272 116 79 0
ODI 0 86 92 208 365 233 91 0
CDI 0 76 59 162 489 580 223 1
VCDI 0 133 133 422 2127 6643 25682 61812

Date: 2022-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60039 21136 2211 962 323 84 65 0
OW 55 306 222 459 228 71 35 0
VODI 0 178 174 350 397 184 74 0
ODI 0 52 116 191 346 237 134 0
CDI 0 43 48 172 482 678 351 1
VCDI 0 131 156 209 1390 5868 29703 59187
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60039 20920 2168 1009 405 125 100 0
OW 55 309 192 362 178 105 61 0
VODI 0 221 146 334 308 164 91 0
ODI 0 124 80 184 328 194 116 0
CDI 0 55 123 151 433 710 294 3
VCDI 0 217 218 303 1514 5824 29700 59185

Date: 2022-02-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53543 26225 3173 976 360 108 43 0
OW 53 286 263 441 281 104 43 0
VODI 0 162 144 438 349 166 81 0
ODI 0 71 94 210 425 220 126 0
CDI 0 54 70 186 639 622 471 6
VCDI 0 27 65 407 1494 5864 28141 60617
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 53543 25925 3141 1023 427 129 77 0
OW 53 301 173 343 252 104 68 0
VODI 0 214 161 335 314 157 96 0
ODI 0 98 116 217 311 194 115 23
CDI 0 124 60 234 641 537 386 36
VCDI 0 163 158 506 1603 5963 28163 60564


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