Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2022-01-20

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. AMSR sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2022-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57564 24063 4805 475 150 86 196 0
OW 63 477 295 310 92 11 21 0
VODI 0 278 296 503 318 56 35 0
ODI 0 107 135 287 378 108 49 0
CDI 0 44 78 283 460 319 285 0
VCDI 0 20 61 320 1009 5217 29706 58088
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54433 21612 9680 546 271 150 158 0
OW 51 335 432 258 190 59 22 0
VODI 0 261 331 328 281 128 28 0
ODI 0 139 184 245 271 200 44 0
CDI 0 104 67 221 419 413 210 15
VCDI 0 96 170 432 992 6033 29770 57469
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 56519 23201 5986 669 193 89 155 0
OW 51 297 285 368 171 54 26 0
VODI 0 169 176 365 330 149 44 0
ODI 0 70 77 248 398 342 77 0
CDI 0 39 54 104 529 597 259 2
VCDI 0 84 100 325 778 4716 30750 58202
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2022-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55236 25030 5159 645 206 92 153 0
OW 51 364 213 351 197 35 31 0
VODI 0 197 186 369 303 120 73 0
ODI 0 76 102 213 364 283 79 0
CDI 0 49 80 167 461 717 282 19
VCDI 0 99 101 362 1070 5465 28470 59578
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55236 25076 5185 691 235 97 157 0
OW 51 326 205 321 181 42 29 0
VODI 0 185 168 350 295 123 72 0
ODI 0 73 95 211 357 239 75 0
CDI 0 49 85 166 468 702 258 19
VCDI 0 106 103 368 1065 5509 28497 59578

Date: 2022-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54909 23632 6265 839 317 132 112 0
OW 60 198 278 401 238 85 39 0
VODI 0 119 180 318 317 185 83 0
ODI 0 59 100 192 335 316 94 0
CDI 0 37 58 201 625 716 250 0
VCDI 0 47 67 242 1012 6184 31339 56467
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 54909 23658 6340 901 347 145 117 0
OW 60 175 216 357 230 81 45 0
VODI 0 115 170 314 299 200 75 0
ODI 0 52 91 184 312 281 85 0
CDI 0 44 54 193 620 652 243 2
VCDI 0 48 77 244 1036 6259 31352 56465

Date: 2022-01-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55767 22183 7172 762 182 111 109 0
OW 60 271 312 414 161 33 9 0
VODI 0 176 247 397 351 90 20 0
ODI 0 82 164 272 551 173 58 0
CDI 0 48 127 275 840 779 343 12
VCDI 0 84 213 417 1453 6334 31258 54738
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 55767 21872 6954 786 247 149 132 0
OW 60 361 324 326 205 53 27 0
VODI 0 225 225 355 299 134 83 0
ODI 0 144 142 209 419 172 94 0
CDI 0 103 138 193 646 644 250 9
VCDI 0 139 452 668 1722 6368 31211 54741

Date: 2022-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57083 23864 3696 778 266 93 117 0
OW 56 430 223 320 178 40 33 0
VODI 0 306 212 341 285 122 70 0
ODI 0 127 151 290 393 190 98 0
CDI 0 98 150 293 577 767 346 22
VCDI 0 299 409 701 1744 6901 35224 49755
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 57082 23479 3617 758 322 124 174 0
OW 57 548 203 251 176 81 37 0
VODI 0 359 201 335 282 156 117 0
ODI 0 162 136 239 321 185 124 0
CDI 0 148 128 299 565 650 263 8
VCDI 0 428 556 841 1777 6917 35173 49769

Date: 2022-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60696 20724 2586 803 279 123 89 0
OW 61 336 244 342 200 71 33 0
VODI 0 251 156 396 364 123 74 0
ODI 0 134 122 347 486 178 111 0
CDI 0 135 106 331 786 573 472 9
VCDI 0 326 456 827 1980 6903 29196 55619
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 60696 20412 2457 820 360 166 121 0
OW 61 425 257 233 223 63 47 0
VODI 0 311 197 425 326 174 103 0
ODI 0 185 104 291 439 191 128 0
CDI 0 134 108 276 644 545 335 14
VCDI 0 439 547 1001 2103 6832 29241 55614


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