Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2024-03-14

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2024-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12845 6084 854 322 149 58 9 0
OW 0 76 148 131 111 93 10 0
VODI 0 35 144 181 144 230 75 0
ODI 0 3 74 121 166 258 153 3
CDI 0 2 26 107 222 376 975 83
VCDI 0 4 34 59 136 363 7126 6169
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12544 5956 888 399 194 89 12 0
OW 0 42 172 116 87 98 18 0
VODI 0 18 84 140 178 168 82 0
ODI 0 4 30 72 147 256 152 2
CDI 0 0 18 49 141 417 824 32
VCDI 0 0 15 43 102 412 8074 6084
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2024-03-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12617 5717 652 409 203 142 26 0
OW 0 91 169 104 85 81 38 0
VODI 0 12 152 130 146 103 90 0
ODI 0 0 61 99 164 98 145 3
CDI 0 0 40 89 220 237 437 30
VCDI 0 0 30 47 125 569 8480 6318
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12617 5727 672 418 206 155 38 0
OW 0 78 168 107 93 75 31 0
VODI 0 15 146 122 149 100 95 0
ODI 0 0 60 99 156 97 135 3
CDI 0 0 33 87 202 227 399 33
VCDI 0 0 25 45 137 576 8518 6315

Date: 2024-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11731 6025 933 550 259 142 16 0
OW 0 35 93 160 91 69 17 0
VODI 0 17 69 177 147 129 71 0
ODI 0 3 34 133 118 144 126 0
CDI 0 2 11 81 140 257 301 18
VCDI 0 0 7 95 244 941 7624 7149
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11731 5965 852 562 285 187 37 0
OW 0 71 118 153 88 92 44 0
VODI 0 21 97 145 102 122 101 0
ODI 0 13 35 119 100 109 98 1
CDI 0 6 20 75 131 207 253 22
VCDI 0 6 25 142 293 965 7622 7144

Date: 2024-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11990 5632 1095 465 240 134 12 0
OW 0 24 126 150 81 67 34 0
VODI 0 16 76 181 108 132 78 0
ODI 0 8 26 105 91 128 128 0
CDI 0 2 28 86 108 246 340 4
VCDI 0 0 11 74 224 734 7084 8091
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11990 5576 984 490 271 204 55 0
OW 0 59 141 110 74 94 70 0
VODI 0 26 132 132 60 128 133 0
ODI 0 7 44 121 59 120 134 0
CDI 0 8 27 105 95 201 333 11
VCDI 0 6 34 103 293 694 6951 8084

Date: 2024-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12232 5678 835 346 212 184 20 0
OW 0 60 126 110 74 85 33 0
VODI 0 28 103 115 107 140 109 0
ODI 0 10 56 81 77 156 178 0
CDI 0 6 38 79 104 186 498 12
VCDI 0 0 23 77 224 510 6697 8550
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12232 5580 758 397 282 336 112 0
OW 0 81 128 69 58 89 108 0
VODI 0 48 118 72 68 119 208 0
ODI 0 24 55 56 50 100 252 0
CDI 0 19 33 74 45 114 482 14
VCDI 0 30 89 140 295 503 6373 8548


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