Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2023-12-14
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2023-12-08:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14456 |
6647 |
646 |
300 |
159 |
121 |
100 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
123 |
222 |
185 |
59 |
45 |
36 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
66 |
124 |
180 |
129 |
61 |
85 |
2 |
| ODI |
0 |
36 |
58 |
117 |
132 |
123 |
91 |
10 |
| CDI |
0 |
11 |
28 |
125 |
139 |
293 |
399 |
12 |
| VCDI |
0 |
1 |
13 |
54 |
86 |
648 |
7723 |
4314 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-12-12:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14162 |
6647 |
847 |
318 |
207 |
205 |
43 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
116 |
311 |
209 |
117 |
71 |
10 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
46 |
204 |
167 |
173 |
170 |
25 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
12 |
97 |
98 |
158 |
191 |
63 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
10 |
57 |
99 |
183 |
359 |
240 |
14 |
| VCDI |
0 |
16 |
62 |
132 |
162 |
1646 |
7811 |
2700 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-12-14:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14036 |
6747 |
855 |
356 |
148 |
55 |
62 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
109 |
353 |
229 |
97 |
47 |
19 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
81 |
252 |
246 |
193 |
134 |
46 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
36 |
110 |
150 |
125 |
176 |
94 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
17 |
87 |
131 |
129 |
226 |
331 |
12 |
| VCDI |
0 |
20 |
77 |
168 |
195 |
573 |
8513 |
2923 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14036 |
6757 |
911 |
377 |
164 |
72 |
65 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
103 |
279 |
187 |
69 |
40 |
17 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
80 |
265 |
268 |
200 |
134 |
42 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
29 |
112 |
151 |
119 |
166 |
115 |
5 |
| CDI |
0 |
18 |
92 |
134 |
142 |
223 |
314 |
12 |
| VCDI |
0 |
23 |
75 |
163 |
193 |
576 |
8512 |
2919 |
|
Date: 2023-12-18:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14506 |
6832 |
635 |
242 |
33 |
26 |
49 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
169 |
296 |
240 |
59 |
43 |
18 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
69 |
187 |
404 |
176 |
86 |
35 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
12 |
49 |
235 |
235 |
236 |
157 |
14 |
| CDI |
0 |
20 |
31 |
184 |
220 |
404 |
575 |
40 |
| VCDI |
0 |
17 |
19 |
102 |
183 |
771 |
5922 |
4628 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14506 |
6579 |
460 |
199 |
77 |
115 |
97 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
219 |
248 |
200 |
58 |
56 |
32 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
153 |
268 |
329 |
123 |
117 |
70 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
65 |
114 |
256 |
166 |
178 |
156 |
17 |
| CDI |
0 |
29 |
67 |
195 |
163 |
199 |
293 |
39 |
| VCDI |
0 |
74 |
60 |
228 |
319 |
901 |
6108 |
4626 |
|
Date: 2023-12-20:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14346 |
6615 |
485 |
295 |
42 |
28 |
23 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
175 |
218 |
195 |
82 |
42 |
8 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
102 |
236 |
376 |
224 |
114 |
23 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
23 |
69 |
216 |
174 |
260 |
139 |
6 |
| CDI |
0 |
16 |
55 |
135 |
167 |
385 |
495 |
19 |
| VCDI |
0 |
8 |
35 |
172 |
309 |
676 |
7436 |
3735 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14346 |
6472 |
418 |
285 |
88 |
96 |
62 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
196 |
159 |
153 |
71 |
51 |
20 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
113 |
228 |
296 |
204 |
160 |
68 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
90 |
125 |
247 |
145 |
185 |
159 |
5 |
| CDI |
0 |
36 |
82 |
160 |
143 |
275 |
394 |
17 |
| VCDI |
0 |
32 |
86 |
248 |
347 |
738 |
7421 |
3738 |
|
Date: 2023-12-22:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
13576 |
6685 |
813 |
247 |
121 |
51 |
19 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
83 |
159 |
105 |
115 |
108 |
6 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
80 |
128 |
157 |
212 |
301 |
19 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
27 |
64 |
113 |
189 |
474 |
111 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
13 |
57 |
67 |
89 |
479 |
510 |
9 |
| VCDI |
0 |
2 |
54 |
138 |
241 |
820 |
7357 |
4359 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
13576 |
6617 |
749 |
254 |
157 |
169 |
55 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
124 |
145 |
77 |
78 |
153 |
16 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
68 |
159 |
121 |
175 |
342 |
62 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
24 |
59 |
94 |
179 |
344 |
197 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
32 |
70 |
102 |
94 |
342 |
562 |
6 |
| VCDI |
0 |
25 |
93 |
179 |
284 |
883 |
7130 |
4362 |
|
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