Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2023-11-30

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15528 5945 1502 359 212 179 93 0
OW 0 69 300 150 75 30 28 0
VODI 0 6 153 171 143 83 32 0
ODI 0 0 81 94 114 129 64 0
CDI 0 0 61 75 103 249 137 31
VCDI 0 0 84 134 254 705 5901 4885
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15073 7017 936 484 221 90 107 0
OW 0 86 167 206 83 23 23 0
VODI 0 43 103 246 144 89 46 0
ODI 0 17 30 131 156 213 155 0
CDI 0 13 17 149 158 242 511 24
VCDI 0 36 43 113 177 768 6188 3831
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15170 6407 1084 307 157 300 111 0
OW 0 122 238 162 55 42 35 0
VODI 0 43 155 166 122 133 59 0
ODI 0 5 59 86 136 258 113 0
CDI 0 1 31 61 186 351 430 15
VCDI 0 0 59 56 133 604 6544 4163
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 15170 6437 1125 342 161 309 115 0
OW 0 92 197 154 64 39 37 0
VODI 0 44 154 135 114 128 68 0
ODI 0 5 61 86 122 252 106 0
CDI 0 0 30 66 195 335 397 15
VCDI 0 0 59 55 133 625 6569 4163

Date: 2023-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14296 6629 1286 286 165 188 127 0
OW 0 21 194 146 116 56 50 0
VODI 0 1 119 137 156 144 108 0
ODI 0 0 39 80 151 221 184 0
CDI 0 0 15 29 69 368 769 16
VCDI 0 0 7 6 42 220 6759 4959
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14296 6554 1143 271 173 218 191 0
OW 0 64 206 103 87 56 65 0
VODI 0 20 145 137 140 117 110 0
ODI 0 12 57 70 108 152 157 0
CDI 0 1 72 65 107 270 406 9
VCDI 0 0 37 38 84 384 7068 4966

Date: 2023-12-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14610 6587 883 277 104 164 123 0
OW 0 91 178 140 63 54 43 0
VODI 0 37 134 169 121 82 100 0
ODI 0 20 55 117 103 141 111 0
CDI 0 11 32 78 115 349 483 19
VCDI 0 8 12 32 52 419 7408 4634
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14610 6440 800 275 100 187 164 0
OW 0 152 186 111 58 52 63 0
VODI 0 85 145 150 99 80 106 0
ODI 0 33 70 102 110 149 124 0
CDI 0 28 57 89 83 225 285 13
VCDI 0 16 36 86 108 516 7526 4640

Date: 2023-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14456 6647 646 300 159 121 100 0
OW 0 123 222 185 59 45 36 0
VODI 0 66 124 180 129 61 85 2
ODI 0 36 58 117 132 123 91 10
CDI 0 11 28 125 139 293 399 12
VCDI 0 1 13 54 86 648 7723 4314
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 14456 6473 644 321 192 152 140 0
OW 0 198 173 154 64 42 47 0
VODI 0 104 146 167 149 79 105 3
ODI 0 46 54 97 97 155 138 10
CDI 0 55 58 125 83 246 442 7
VCDI 0 8 16 97 119 617 7562 4318


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