Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2023-11-02

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20518 5493 611 655 143 85 80 0
OW 2 143 150 426 195 41 57 0
VODI 0 25 53 218 398 69 70 0
ODI 0 4 12 75 167 82 97 0
CDI 0 0 3 68 88 186 307 0
VCDI 0 0 0 21 54 335 4677 2551
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18628 6521 774 652 263 184 19 0
OW 0 5 53 164 133 75 17 0
VODI 0 0 16 168 298 170 53 0
ODI 0 0 9 82 190 313 96 0
CDI 0 0 2 23 134 827 425 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 63 420 4330 3036
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17889 7033 923 498 210 225 38 0
OW 0 12 125 142 105 59 34 0
VODI 0 2 39 147 245 147 41 0
ODI 0 0 1 71 227 302 88 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 102 533 323 2
VCDI 0 0 0 8 81 741 4441 3302
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17889 7004 885 469 214 240 46 0
OW 0 39 153 162 94 45 25 0
VODI 0 4 48 153 252 134 43 0
ODI 0 0 2 79 205 267 79 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 121 449 345 2
VCDI 0 0 0 10 84 872 4427 3302

Date: 2023-11-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17211 7329 946 360 219 282 11 0
OW 0 36 126 123 67 104 13 0
VODI 0 7 67 101 77 104 38 0
ODI 0 1 11 44 85 197 100 0
CDI 0 0 6 13 47 230 510 6
VCDI 0 0 1 29 46 271 4539 4802
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17211 7283 851 340 229 383 33 0
OW 0 70 173 109 61 66 32 0
VODI 0 18 87 109 66 110 104 0
ODI 0 2 24 56 57 137 165 1
CDI 0 0 17 17 71 197 356 19
VCDI 0 0 5 39 57 295 4521 4788

Date: 2023-11-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17141 7269 670 448 216 179 68 0
OW 0 97 151 138 63 73 36 0
VODI 0 7 64 167 102 96 54 0
ODI 0 2 4 56 76 154 81 1
CDI 0 0 1 43 69 191 402 9
VCDI 0 0 0 6 34 356 6137 3498
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17141 7169 643 443 238 254 117 0
OW 0 172 122 123 63 62 46 0
VODI 0 31 93 129 89 106 128 0
ODI 0 3 30 84 40 113 162 1
CDI 0 0 2 52 68 162 385 3
VCDI 0 0 0 27 62 352 5940 3504

Date: 2023-11-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16930 7264 580 380 179 160 95 0
OW 0 127 137 153 80 67 63 0
VODI 0 57 81 147 93 111 101 0
ODI 0 8 18 73 50 141 86 1
CDI 0 0 4 42 81 196 327 6
VCDI 0 0 0 8 52 402 6119 3740
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16930 7169 575 391 209 197 140 0
OW 0 150 79 103 62 69 69 0
VODI 0 115 105 163 92 146 108 0
ODI 0 20 41 60 40 128 184 0
CDI 0 2 18 55 68 153 440 3
VCDI 0 0 2 31 64 384 5850 3744


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