Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2023-10-19
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2023-10-13:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23378 |
4767 |
576 |
304 |
224 |
138 |
2 |
0 |
| OW |
1 |
72 |
117 |
83 |
42 |
53 |
4 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
16 |
102 |
120 |
62 |
59 |
12 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
2 |
55 |
51 |
34 |
51 |
21 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
39 |
34 |
37 |
77 |
71 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
8 |
26 |
41 |
307 |
3930 |
3243 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-10-17:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
23694 |
4538 |
405 |
367 |
172 |
99 |
12 |
0 |
| OW |
202 |
38 |
82 |
122 |
39 |
29 |
20 |
0 |
| VODI |
7 |
30 |
36 |
136 |
41 |
39 |
18 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
17 |
19 |
64 |
41 |
62 |
55 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
7 |
22 |
66 |
60 |
125 |
159 |
4 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
47 |
109 |
611 |
3828 |
2736 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2023-10-19:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
22428 |
5391 |
521 |
293 |
198 |
70 |
32 |
0 |
| OW |
298 |
44 |
53 |
89 |
84 |
83 |
24 |
0 |
| VODI |
12 |
25 |
35 |
62 |
112 |
142 |
34 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
10 |
24 |
36 |
58 |
113 |
47 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
27 |
21 |
79 |
205 |
127 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
19 |
24 |
48 |
586 |
3853 |
2852 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
22530 |
5391 |
509 |
289 |
204 |
71 |
32 |
0 |
| OW |
197 |
43 |
63 |
85 |
79 |
83 |
21 |
0 |
| VODI |
11 |
26 |
37 |
67 |
106 |
111 |
33 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
10 |
23 |
35 |
56 |
125 |
43 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
25 |
22 |
73 |
188 |
119 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
22 |
27 |
61 |
621 |
3869 |
2852 |
|
Date: 2023-10-23:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
21070 |
6257 |
818 |
341 |
143 |
108 |
53 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
46 |
171 |
164 |
111 |
55 |
32 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
5 |
71 |
96 |
165 |
80 |
33 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
6 |
33 |
62 |
106 |
52 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
7 |
13 |
81 |
220 |
445 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
6 |
46 |
285 |
4187 |
2789 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
21047 |
6071 |
659 |
251 |
143 |
124 |
78 |
0 |
| OW |
23 |
201 |
191 |
131 |
105 |
37 |
19 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
35 |
108 |
101 |
84 |
68 |
35 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
1 |
70 |
88 |
63 |
65 |
46 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
38 |
63 |
87 |
135 |
140 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
9 |
19 |
126 |
425 |
4484 |
2789 |
|
Date: 2023-10-25:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20738 |
5963 |
718 |
498 |
154 |
79 |
76 |
0 |
| OW |
3 |
228 |
141 |
252 |
154 |
42 |
32 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
38 |
238 |
206 |
85 |
51 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
9 |
55 |
103 |
75 |
94 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
1 |
49 |
72 |
189 |
353 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
65 |
397 |
4567 |
2422 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20726 |
5904 |
628 |
390 |
135 |
72 |
91 |
0 |
| OW |
15 |
261 |
142 |
192 |
119 |
42 |
26 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
25 |
82 |
223 |
186 |
83 |
66 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
1 |
42 |
135 |
73 |
51 |
65 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
11 |
122 |
124 |
100 |
191 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
2 |
42 |
117 |
519 |
4734 |
2422 |
|
Date: 2023-10-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20518 |
5493 |
611 |
655 |
143 |
85 |
80 |
0 |
| OW |
2 |
143 |
150 |
426 |
195 |
41 |
57 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
25 |
53 |
218 |
398 |
69 |
70 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
4 |
12 |
75 |
167 |
82 |
97 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
3 |
68 |
88 |
186 |
307 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
21 |
54 |
335 |
4677 |
2551 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
20520 |
5416 |
551 |
592 |
177 |
77 |
89 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
185 |
163 |
348 |
219 |
23 |
55 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
48 |
71 |
157 |
349 |
76 |
83 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
15 |
24 |
130 |
82 |
43 |
81 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
20 |
158 |
111 |
140 |
242 |
0 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
0 |
78 |
107 |
439 |
4738 |
2551 |
|
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