Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2023-08-24

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2023-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22425 5624 1136 713 309 40 9 0
OW 0 4 50 161 237 117 38 0
VODI 0 1 18 95 151 129 154 0
ODI 0 0 5 44 73 133 286 184
CDI 0 0 0 17 50 101 1966 1113
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 885 1888
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22299 5538 1562 715 386 69 5 0
OW 0 0 62 127 144 82 12 0
VODI 0 0 24 98 155 229 126 0
ODI 0 0 3 34 103 207 572 90
CDI 0 0 0 15 49 112 1964 688
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 954 1734
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2023-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22671 5576 1165 911 219 82 12 0
OW 0 13 61 177 111 70 13 0
VODI 0 0 30 138 172 166 115 0
ODI 0 0 3 66 117 190 451 57
CDI 0 0 0 26 90 117 2201 749
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 846 1537
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22671 5572 1177 938 245 88 13 0
OW 0 17 43 146 96 67 24 0
VODI 0 0 36 130 150 164 96 0
ODI 0 0 3 74 125 186 412 51
CDI 0 0 0 30 93 116 2235 784
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 858 1508

Date: 2023-08-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22746 5466 1195 1038 133 39 17 0
OW 0 7 44 160 118 35 6 0
VODI 0 0 30 173 257 175 24 0
ODI 0 0 6 59 188 483 532 120
CDI 0 0 0 23 78 214 1977 1203
VCDI 0 0 0 2 2 18 1017 574
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22746 5460 1180 1071 165 60 18 0
OW 0 10 45 157 167 65 5 0
VODI 0 3 31 99 193 182 44 0
ODI 0 0 17 79 128 234 244 61
CDI 0 0 2 46 117 401 2357 434
VCDI 0 0 0 3 6 22 905 1402

Date: 2023-08-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23306 4827 1291 862 333 68 15 0
OW 0 0 31 130 180 73 15 0
VODI 0 0 20 94 246 224 45 0
ODI 0 0 2 47 99 394 649 89
CDI 0 0 0 21 74 127 2068 1146
VCDI 0 0 0 1 4 12 920 746
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23306 4827 1250 859 380 96 21 0
OW 0 0 53 119 178 99 14 0
VODI 0 0 21 62 175 162 78 0
ODI 0 0 20 61 85 186 288 65
CDI 0 0 0 52 109 339 2399 430
VCDI 0 0 0 2 9 16 912 1486

Date: 2023-09-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22911 5167 1440 852 282 96 1 0
OW 0 0 45 153 177 107 7 0
VODI 0 0 22 102 237 195 55 0
ODI 0 0 4 57 117 380 607 62
CDI 0 0 0 14 79 143 2082 1205
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 11 849 693
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22911 5167 1375 869 321 165 5 0
OW 0 0 61 122 165 94 12 0
VODI 0 0 41 74 167 134 93 0
ODI 0 0 29 54 92 199 310 52
CDI 0 0 5 59 142 320 2383 361
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 20 798 1547


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