Validation of sea ice concentration
Bulletin date: 2021-12-23
Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables
Date: 2021-12-17:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
15000 |
6178 |
958 |
360 |
120 |
95 |
136 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
64 |
185 |
148 |
79 |
48 |
34 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
21 |
129 |
156 |
135 |
95 |
79 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
11 |
37 |
83 |
114 |
132 |
162 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
9 |
16 |
64 |
97 |
155 |
433 |
12 |
| VCDI |
0 |
6 |
51 |
64 |
146 |
295 |
7023 |
5229 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2021-12-21:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14224 |
5926 |
1102 |
402 |
260 |
152 |
91 |
3 |
| OW |
0 |
18 |
130 |
151 |
94 |
88 |
54 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
12 |
45 |
143 |
116 |
138 |
83 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
7 |
24 |
51 |
114 |
214 |
169 |
1 |
| CDI |
0 |
7 |
7 |
22 |
47 |
357 |
493 |
83 |
| VCDI |
0 |
3 |
22 |
39 |
61 |
275 |
5891 |
7040 |
|
...date precedes bulletin
|
Date: 2021-12-23:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14019 |
5880 |
1045 |
352 |
197 |
196 |
105 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
14 |
145 |
178 |
104 |
69 |
73 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
11 |
61 |
109 |
145 |
130 |
80 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
3 |
23 |
39 |
105 |
164 |
153 |
39 |
| CDI |
0 |
3 |
25 |
22 |
56 |
266 |
400 |
202 |
| VCDI |
0 |
1 |
14 |
57 |
79 |
280 |
6111 |
7204 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14019 |
5879 |
1055 |
374 |
201 |
201 |
127 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
16 |
129 |
157 |
97 |
65 |
62 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
10 |
65 |
104 |
144 |
135 |
75 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
3 |
23 |
43 |
105 |
175 |
143 |
43 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
24 |
20 |
59 |
238 |
466 |
206 |
| VCDI |
0 |
3 |
17 |
59 |
80 |
291 |
6049 |
7196 |
|
Date: 2021-12-27:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14004 |
6013 |
714 |
341 |
125 |
147 |
136 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
61 |
142 |
135 |
76 |
50 |
35 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
26 |
111 |
144 |
117 |
134 |
47 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
3 |
37 |
90 |
95 |
196 |
131 |
17 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
41 |
42 |
53 |
223 |
442 |
188 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
64 |
97 |
72 |
325 |
6020 |
7465 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
14004 |
6010 |
671 |
332 |
138 |
175 |
175 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
73 |
120 |
132 |
74 |
77 |
41 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
19 |
123 |
126 |
94 |
141 |
88 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
73 |
91 |
79 |
131 |
168 |
41 |
| CDI |
0 |
1 |
44 |
54 |
66 |
195 |
356 |
212 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
78 |
114 |
87 |
356 |
5983 |
7417 |
|
Date: 2021-12-29:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
13532 |
5866 |
1092 |
290 |
167 |
150 |
162 |
1 |
| OW |
0 |
13 |
176 |
136 |
91 |
81 |
49 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
2 |
109 |
107 |
118 |
128 |
89 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
38 |
59 |
93 |
156 |
133 |
21 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
38 |
24 |
75 |
193 |
491 |
111 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
123 |
84 |
96 |
303 |
7835 |
5927 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
13532 |
5872 |
1040 |
280 |
202 |
178 |
204 |
1 |
| OW |
0 |
4 |
165 |
115 |
66 |
89 |
78 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
5 |
112 |
108 |
109 |
135 |
144 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
67 |
59 |
89 |
131 |
206 |
31 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
52 |
53 |
63 |
166 |
493 |
110 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
140 |
85 |
111 |
312 |
7634 |
5918 |
|
Date: 2021-12-31:
| Best estimate |
Forecast |
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
13332 |
5857 |
1087 |
356 |
130 |
170 |
130 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
13 |
228 |
117 |
69 |
62 |
49 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
0 |
147 |
125 |
112 |
116 |
92 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
64 |
88 |
94 |
90 |
167 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
41 |
76 |
53 |
221 |
430 |
39 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
70 |
147 |
91 |
373 |
7710 |
6213 |
|
|
observations |
|
Ice free |
Ice free
near MIZ |
OW |
VODI |
ODI |
CDI |
VCDI
near MIZ |
VCDI |
m
o
d
e
l |
Ice free |
13332 |
5848 |
994 |
365 |
135 |
201 |
182 |
0 |
| OW |
0 |
19 |
226 |
99 |
76 |
69 |
99 |
0 |
| VODI |
0 |
3 |
194 |
111 |
97 |
103 |
148 |
0 |
| ODI |
0 |
0 |
97 |
65 |
82 |
115 |
215 |
0 |
| CDI |
0 |
0 |
54 |
110 |
61 |
213 |
379 |
71 |
| VCDI |
0 |
0 |
72 |
159 |
98 |
331 |
7555 |
6181 |
|
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