Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-11-18

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-11-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17985 6893 924 394 206 97 30 0
OW 0 73 145 157 103 108 31 0
VODI 0 14 125 125 153 175 78 0
ODI 0 2 41 79 89 187 95 5
CDI 0 2 15 48 77 192 244 39
VCDI 0 1 3 16 64 395 4039 4710
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16902 7102 1079 336 264 182 37 0
OW 5 47 167 97 94 107 26 0
VODI 1 11 125 122 104 124 88 0
ODI 0 1 67 67 99 166 177 0
CDI 0 2 39 44 81 371 339 23
VCDI 0 3 11 43 47 270 4329 4960
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16235 7734 843 467 203 103 66 0
OW 0 74 132 137 88 84 32 0
VODI 0 47 96 117 141 126 83 0
ODI 0 26 36 68 109 114 166 0
CDI 0 20 32 83 96 257 300 17
VCDI 0 5 35 68 109 509 5168 4133
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16235 7738 872 492 209 107 69 0
OW 0 73 104 113 83 75 22 0
VODI 0 44 96 124 150 138 78 0
ODI 0 27 36 67 104 114 155 0
CDI 0 18 28 72 77 228 275 16
VCDI 0 6 38 72 123 531 5216 4134

Date: 2021-11-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15690 7648 729 515 242 177 22 0
OW 0 90 106 161 94 68 8 0
VODI 0 57 78 142 128 111 60 0
ODI 0 15 34 74 112 178 137 0
CDI 0 4 19 82 102 246 412 25
VCDI 0 1 21 93 186 576 5505 4211
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15690 7516 682 505 263 232 25 0
OW 0 135 95 139 69 74 20 0
VODI 0 111 76 133 118 106 121 0
ODI 0 33 55 65 95 137 132 0
CDI 0 19 41 84 86 159 262 28
VCDI 0 1 38 141 233 648 5584 4208

Date: 2021-11-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15378 7636 857 379 119 103 92 0
OW 0 70 132 154 90 53 18 0
VODI 0 32 83 116 120 129 50 0
ODI 0 10 26 86 89 146 101 3
CDI 0 7 13 52 101 149 281 45
VCDI 0 18 38 82 154 534 5915 4698
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15378 7519 759 360 130 154 99 0
OW 0 132 157 93 57 66 28 0
VODI 0 72 122 148 123 98 86 0
ODI 0 23 47 87 101 118 129 1
CDI 0 11 22 73 87 137 275 30
VCDI 0 16 42 108 175 541 5840 4715

Date: 2021-11-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14721 7070 1180 563 235 252 112 0
OW 0 45 122 131 91 132 39 0
VODI 0 17 66 78 99 158 117 0
ODI 0 3 41 35 74 119 203 3
CDI 0 2 9 31 71 135 350 49
VCDI 0 0 11 9 35 171 6045 5535
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14721 6921 1056 534 234 280 134 0
OW 0 158 140 95 65 119 52 0
VODI 0 42 129 100 81 144 204 0
ODI 0 13 68 49 74 75 223 0
CDI 0 3 25 52 82 111 427 10
VCDI 0 0 11 17 69 238 5826 5577


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