Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-11-11

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-11-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18873 7326 841 461 111 82 58 0
OW 0 85 252 121 42 52 37 0
VODI 0 34 135 162 52 71 50 0
ODI 0 8 25 152 75 85 67 3
CDI 0 1 10 132 86 201 209 12
VCDI 0 2 2 74 121 428 4038 3583
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18577 6885 827 619 122 50 21 0
OW 0 44 127 156 97 48 46 0
VODI 0 10 104 181 108 106 105 0
ODI 0 2 18 86 111 108 128 0
CDI 0 1 4 39 63 278 247 0
VCDI 0 0 1 16 55 421 4168 4180
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-11-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18138 6974 1015 372 204 99 18 0
OW 0 24 191 115 104 114 25 0
VODI 0 4 109 120 122 180 87 0
ODI 0 3 28 79 90 153 101 0
CDI 0 2 9 36 88 197 249 13
VCDI 0 0 1 21 83 319 4439 4233
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18138 6977 1035 376 195 136 23 0
OW 0 21 169 119 106 82 33 0
VODI 0 4 105 111 128 169 69 0
ODI 0 3 34 69 76 147 89 0
CDI 0 2 9 47 94 183 235 16
VCDI 0 0 1 21 92 345 4470 4230

Date: 2021-11-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17091 6955 1155 372 255 165 44 0
OW 2 23 186 113 91 86 26 0
VODI 1 5 126 112 102 138 88 0
ODI 0 1 35 60 158 259 199 0
CDI 0 3 16 47 72 225 407 18
VCDI 0 1 0 24 86 234 5057 4121
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17092 6884 1024 344 232 171 47 0
OW 2 75 204 112 79 72 44 0
VODI 0 22 152 104 128 139 113 0
ODI 0 3 77 64 121 202 123 0
CDI 0 3 47 41 89 184 252 24
VCDI 0 1 14 63 115 339 5242 4115

Date: 2021-11-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15975 7812 1056 437 276 135 63 0
OW 0 33 151 110 131 82 27 0
VODI 0 10 101 125 157 131 74 0
ODI 0 3 42 70 130 145 163 0
CDI 0 3 40 51 105 334 303 2
VCDI 0 3 20 48 105 405 4840 4461
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15975 7705 918 371 261 127 46 0
OW 0 79 141 108 136 87 24 0
VODI 0 41 120 153 164 139 103 0
ODI 0 14 71 67 69 109 133 0
CDI 0 22 76 56 99 241 278 0
VCDI 0 3 84 86 175 529 4886 4463

Date: 2021-11-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16288 7622 743 441 242 132 45 0
OW 0 104 109 109 98 98 49 0
VODI 0 75 74 101 77 146 104 0
ODI 0 23 48 59 98 135 190 0
CDI 0 28 24 66 106 182 307 37
VCDI 0 17 46 76 127 470 5047 4416
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16288 7380 626 329 191 132 45 0
OW 0 134 123 104 81 89 32 0
VODI 0 117 85 143 114 148 122 0
ODI 0 66 42 67 84 123 160 10
CDI 0 70 57 64 66 112 210 35
VCDI 0 102 111 145 212 559 5173 4408


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