Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-10-21

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-10-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22352 6878 1292 244 171 94 3 0
OW 0 17 118 64 52 72 15 0
VODI 0 8 77 38 35 91 54 0
ODI 0 0 35 16 30 52 89 0
CDI 0 0 29 13 26 41 278 0
VCDI 0 0 5 20 28 108 2704 3010
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21437 7083 1321 473 194 57 1 0
OW 0 11 144 70 67 58 10 0
VODI 0 0 49 69 68 96 36 0
ODI 0 0 14 31 27 94 79 0
CDI 0 0 7 16 23 89 256 74
VCDI 0 0 1 27 34 100 2791 3252
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21166 7102 1042 745 140 31 4 0
OW 0 51 115 150 95 77 17 0
VODI 0 13 60 65 75 76 23 0
ODI 0 6 23 37 50 119 63 0
CDI 0 3 9 25 42 117 227 0
VCDI 0 0 1 9 34 123 2931 3293
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21166 7090 1042 750 163 40 4 0
OW 0 60 110 136 78 66 13 0
VODI 0 16 67 74 68 89 24 0
ODI 0 6 22 37 53 107 63 0
CDI 0 3 5 25 38 116 222 0
VCDI 0 0 4 9 36 125 2939 3293

Date: 2021-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21616 6218 871 396 155 114 24 0
OW 0 80 88 166 83 61 9 0
VODI 0 7 45 121 239 215 22 0
ODI 0 0 8 65 103 322 76 0
CDI 0 0 2 36 60 153 216 1
VCDI 0 0 0 10 33 373 3945 2226
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21616 6148 796 391 225 173 32 0
OW 0 135 136 130 115 120 11 0
VODI 0 21 51 120 162 182 30 0
ODI 0 1 29 86 55 214 52 0
CDI 0 0 2 51 68 128 174 1
VCDI 0 0 0 16 48 421 3993 2226

Date: 2021-10-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19820 7233 1147 358 203 151 2 0
OW 0 45 141 95 184 125 17 0
VODI 0 1 59 83 156 241 54 0
ODI 0 0 21 29 105 372 165 0
CDI 0 0 9 24 68 239 308 1
VCDI 0 0 0 7 32 289 3816 2559
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19820 7177 1039 310 200 167 3 0
OW 0 91 197 126 236 160 25 0
VODI 0 10 80 73 124 415 87 0
ODI 0 1 39 38 77 159 160 0
CDI 0 0 14 33 69 189 195 0
VCDI 0 0 8 16 42 327 3892 2560

Date: 2021-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19692 7193 906 421 156 89 2 0
OW 0 49 155 154 157 104 8 0
VODI 0 3 88 123 189 202 75 0
ODI 0 1 26 42 97 266 187 0
CDI 0 0 19 41 76 336 371 5
VCDI 0 0 12 16 32 251 3154 3461
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19692 7105 813 387 168 96 1 0
OW 0 107 152 140 141 111 63 0
VODI 0 23 131 128 194 374 108 0
ODI 0 6 37 52 62 252 230 0
CDI 0 3 25 33 67 112 220 13
VCDI 0 2 48 57 75 303 3175 3453


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