Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-10-14

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-10-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23843 6371 1070 208 201 123 2 0
OW 0 14 94 65 48 108 7 0
VODI 0 0 42 40 35 82 35 0
ODI 0 0 5 12 21 65 49 0
CDI 0 0 4 19 47 110 157 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 190 2149 2923
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23993 5731 822 418 224 61 5 0
OW 0 3 41 51 106 72 6 0
VODI 0 1 12 35 111 94 28 0
ODI 0 0 10 12 75 101 63 0
CDI 0 0 4 14 39 145 272 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 114 260 2540 2670
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-10-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23629 5756 1017 368 215 127 11 0
OW 0 2 107 43 61 66 26 0
VODI 0 0 60 30 42 86 74 0
ODI 0 0 35 12 18 54 120 0
CDI 0 0 24 16 27 52 314 0
VCDI 0 0 3 10 23 83 2793 2855
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23629 5745 1018 369 223 145 29 0
OW 0 13 91 37 51 59 33 0
VODI 0 0 74 36 42 74 68 0
ODI 0 0 28 12 18 50 118 0
CDI 0 0 27 13 23 56 316 0
VCDI 0 0 8 12 29 84 2774 2855

Date: 2021-10-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22703 6458 1116 267 131 37 5 0
OW 0 24 92 74 73 50 15 0
VODI 0 1 39 72 73 75 41 0
ODI 0 0 13 25 46 85 83 2
CDI 0 0 2 18 30 92 294 28
VCDI 0 0 6 20 38 107 2435 3489
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22703 6406 1068 276 157 70 38 0
OW 0 60 79 47 41 49 13 0
VODI 0 14 69 66 78 80 60 0
ODI 0 2 29 39 32 58 85 4
CDI 0 1 12 20 32 58 141 17
VCDI 0 0 11 28 51 131 2536 3498

Date: 2021-10-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21239 7094 1230 553 196 102 1 0
OW 0 17 144 83 66 82 10 0
VODI 0 0 56 65 80 92 30 0
ODI 0 0 13 45 41 101 91 0
CDI 0 0 3 11 28 109 292 69
VCDI 0 0 0 36 38 95 2897 3150
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21239 7051 1211 575 201 96 7 0
OW 0 58 123 46 46 95 28 0
VODI 0 2 69 77 66 120 44 0
ODI 0 0 23 34 67 68 105 0
CDI 0 0 11 16 17 98 175 75
VCDI 0 0 9 45 52 104 2962 3144

Date: 2021-10-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21197 7052 964 693 132 36 3 0
OW 0 74 128 157 118 59 12 0
VODI 0 9 63 78 72 105 18 0
ODI 0 2 27 64 60 88 41 0
CDI 0 0 18 35 44 104 170 0
VCDI 0 0 8 16 55 133 2989 3335
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21197 6991 1010 747 179 35 10 0
OW 0 81 79 85 59 49 19 0
VODI 0 52 48 107 90 146 30 0
ODI 0 11 30 54 58 89 62 0
CDI 0 2 12 25 39 88 154 0
VCDI 0 0 29 25 56 118 2958 3335


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