Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-09-23

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24465 6363 1357 691 69 3 0 0
OW 0 21 126 118 49 7 0 0
VODI 0 4 76 106 98 40 9 0
ODI 0 0 4 35 120 137 69 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 53 251 669 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 12 186 1850 1154
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-09-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24342 6374 1788 584 35 3 0 0
OW 0 14 91 72 25 6 0 0
VODI 0 4 44 49 96 43 7 0
ODI 0 0 1 20 79 142 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 40 228 530 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 62 1849 1556
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24663 6512 1417 349 83 5 0 0
OW 0 25 94 55 37 5 2 0
VODI 0 4 67 69 54 23 7 0
ODI 0 0 8 43 73 59 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 94 176 329 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 94 2026 1737
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24663 6523 1436 343 80 7 0 0
OW 0 13 87 63 41 4 2 0
VODI 0 5 54 72 60 28 5 0
ODI 0 0 9 39 87 70 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 73 153 315 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 100 2043 1737

Date: 2021-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24166 6999 1429 224 62 19 0 0
OW 0 29 69 52 39 18 0 0
VODI 0 1 40 61 52 42 12 0
ODI 0 0 5 30 54 87 42 0
CDI 0 0 1 13 18 234 223 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 44 1772 2321
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24166 6878 1371 193 54 22 0 0
OW 0 91 42 38 26 15 0 0
VODI 0 54 59 30 55 37 6 0
ODI 0 5 47 39 34 74 17 0
CDI 0 1 24 68 46 161 91 0
VCDI 0 0 1 12 11 135 1935 2321

Date: 2021-09-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24376 6518 1445 234 57 44 0 0
OW 0 18 52 89 39 31 9 0
VODI 0 3 19 58 63 46 12 0
ODI 0 0 5 24 42 71 45 0
CDI 0 0 2 10 27 187 264 25
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2 91 2155 2095
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24376 6458 1359 195 57 41 6 0
OW 0 33 67 38 28 35 6 0
VODI 0 29 45 63 42 56 27 0
ODI 0 10 33 48 40 52 70 4
CDI 0 9 14 56 33 102 181 37
VCDI 0 0 5 16 30 184 2195 2079

Date: 2021-10-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24530 6293 1389 216 77 33 5 0
OW 10 16 59 52 62 41 22 0
VODI 0 7 25 40 60 68 27 0
ODI 0 0 11 13 31 68 67 0
CDI 0 0 6 7 38 134 314 16
VCDI 0 0 0 6 12 151 2187 2066
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24540 6258 1367 213 57 21 7 0
OW 0 36 77 40 64 35 19 0
VODI 0 15 30 35 63 71 71 0
ODI 0 4 9 19 29 61 123 0
CDI 0 3 7 24 49 107 265 21
VCDI 0 0 0 3 18 200 2137 2061


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