Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-07-08

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16782 6845 2486 1289 507 55 167 11
OW 0 3 94 240 267 96 77 0
VODI 0 0 39 193 334 303 219 2
ODI 0 0 8 100 274 319 429 1
CDI 0 0 3 83 172 404 2145 60
VCDI 0 0 0 1 2 128 1450 2571
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17247 6508 3432 1094 265 69 178 11
OW 0 0 104 176 210 83 60 0
VODI 0 0 29 176 421 211 173 2
ODI 0 0 4 57 161 347 395 1
CDI 0 0 1 62 111 457 2134 223
VCDI 0 0 0 3 6 27 1219 2502
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16734 6368 3914 1569 260 51 142 11
OW 0 0 75 200 198 75 74 0
VODI 0 0 17 184 335 216 186 2
ODI 0 0 2 77 160 270 304 1
CDI 0 0 0 48 160 426 1985 266
VCDI 0 0 0 6 21 117 1320 2385
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16734 6368 3931 1602 283 56 167 11
OW 0 0 57 172 170 71 71 0
VODI 0 0 18 181 332 193 145 2
ODI 0 0 2 74 164 277 309 1
CDI 0 0 0 50 160 476 1883 295
VCDI 0 0 0 5 25 82 1436 2356

Date: 2021-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17269 6761 3297 1436 486 76 140 0
OW 0 0 47 108 194 81 54 0
VODI 0 0 19 128 246 269 106 0
ODI 0 0 3 55 107 417 303 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 57 421 2201 885
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 12 754 2210
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17269 6761 3321 1384 452 127 171 0
OW 0 0 29 114 172 95 103 0
VODI 0 0 15 112 245 223 125 0
ODI 0 0 1 83 119 292 196 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 101 459 1582 725
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 80 1381 2370

Date: 2021-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17460 7192 2920 1346 498 106 134 0
OW 0 0 49 105 205 110 61 0
VODI 0 0 18 67 243 283 159 0
ODI 0 0 2 24 139 282 329 5
CDI 0 0 0 10 77 394 2398 1297
VCDI 0 0 0 1 5 3 455 1782
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17460 7192 2941 1313 436 145 173 0
OW 0 0 29 91 185 105 99 0
VODI 0 0 13 84 220 230 120 0
ODI 0 0 6 52 183 222 229 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 130 433 1832 912
VCDI 0 0 0 1 13 43 1083 2172

Date: 2021-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17473 7156 3074 1398 460 99 126 0
OW 0 0 43 120 233 128 58 0
VODI 0 0 19 52 271 231 179 0
ODI 0 0 5 32 130 243 378 7
CDI 0 0 0 14 165 342 2371 1807
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 286 1258
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17473 7156 3094 1377 430 160 199 0
OW 0 0 22 101 197 91 92 0
VODI 0 0 16 66 255 176 114 0
ODI 0 0 6 53 166 204 275 3
CDI 0 0 3 19 199 399 2058 1225
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 13 660 1844


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