Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-07-01

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15598 6495 2696 1897 563 82 139 11
OW 0 0 60 196 258 112 129 0
VODI 0 0 12 134 288 206 353 2
ODI 0 0 2 89 239 272 499 1
CDI 0 0 0 123 306 317 1647 90
VCDI 0 0 0 9 174 101 2272 2787
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16243 6707 2837 1409 461 39 156 12
OW 0 0 94 204 238 59 49 0
VODI 0 0 29 118 358 352 148 2
ODI 0 0 12 93 296 391 378 1
CDI 0 0 27 59 146 384 1777 12
VCDI 0 0 0 3 33 116 2214 2702
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-07-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16921 6751 2453 1183 504 55 165 12
OW 0 1 92 266 211 89 66 0
VODI 0 0 42 216 341 316 183 2
ODI 0 0 5 108 294 320 464 1
CDI 0 0 1 71 159 362 1847 27
VCDI 0 0 0 2 13 188 1910 2518
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16921 6751 2464 1222 550 67 168 12
OW 0 1 74 249 183 95 68 0
VODI 0 0 49 196 300 305 190 2
ODI 0 0 5 108 315 303 408 1
CDI 0 0 1 69 158 353 1869 39
VCDI 0 0 0 2 16 207 1932 2506

Date: 2021-07-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17281 6570 3258 948 276 42 171 11
OW 0 1 147 163 221 101 52 0
VODI 0 0 41 185 471 239 119 2
ODI 0 0 5 68 181 409 378 1
CDI 0 0 0 43 101 556 2255 163
VCDI 0 0 0 3 1 6 1140 2550
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17281 6569 3255 935 350 64 191 11
OW 0 2 127 185 263 100 102 0
VODI 0 0 56 134 257 195 200 2
ODI 0 0 7 64 199 337 264 1
CDI 0 0 6 86 157 544 1745 103
VCDI 0 0 0 6 25 113 1613 2610

Date: 2021-07-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17722 6550 3191 898 295 91 165 11
OW 0 0 99 179 176 110 71 0
VODI 0 0 23 187 291 284 194 2
ODI 0 0 2 75 134 312 385 1
CDI 0 0 1 40 107 458 2023 274
VCDI 0 0 0 4 3 75 1275 2451
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17722 6550 3149 894 295 77 224 11
OW 0 0 107 148 195 172 123 0
VODI 0 0 52 147 169 197 176 2
ODI 0 0 6 80 153 283 247 1
CDI 0 0 2 111 148 422 1880 232
VCDI 0 0 0 3 46 179 1463 2493

Date: 2021-07-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16706 6459 3834 1626 245 60 147 19
OW 0 0 71 201 227 73 87 0
VODI 0 0 18 189 260 224 200 2
ODI 0 0 0 81 135 239 286 1
CDI 0 0 0 58 134 452 1984 219
VCDI 0 0 0 4 25 152 1366 2375
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16706 6459 3832 1548 253 70 235 19
OW 0 0 61 215 188 91 106 0
VODI 0 0 29 162 196 150 167 2
ODI 0 0 1 110 168 217 194 1
CDI 0 0 0 115 164 439 1831 430
VCDI 0 0 0 9 57 233 1537 2164


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