Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-05-06

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12741 6336 1167 801 301 220 126 0
OW 0 11 113 288 171 104 71 0
VODI 0 0 60 236 146 118 137 0
ODI 0 0 16 137 136 161 259 1
CDI 0 3 5 109 196 361 1519 11
VCDI 0 3 7 70 107 522 6724 4665
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12811 6376 1344 959 244 133 60 0
OW 0 11 108 257 131 75 37 0
VODI 0 1 58 312 210 117 110 0
ODI 0 3 22 129 111 166 303 5
CDI 0 6 18 109 164 323 1490 15
VCDI 0 0 7 53 125 341 6562 4853
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12804 6426 1129 850 401 197 86 0
OW 0 15 116 200 187 152 69 0
VODI 0 0 68 187 164 197 146 1
ODI 0 7 19 110 115 169 336 7
CDI 0 4 13 70 163 387 1420 16
VCDI 0 0 3 39 86 336 6352 5112
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12804 6425 1153 863 434 228 107 0
OW 0 15 85 148 131 114 48 0
VODI 0 2 71 208 172 187 148 1
ODI 0 8 23 128 126 174 307 6
CDI 0 2 10 69 166 406 1388 13
VCDI 0 0 6 40 87 329 6411 5116

Date: 2021-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13062 6020 1473 1340 303 54 104 0
OW 1 4 66 264 151 37 56 0
VODI 7 1 37 290 178 134 168 25
ODI 5 3 10 120 209 205 220 59
CDI 0 1 3 81 181 503 1402 81
VCDI 0 0 1 30 104 316 6050 4800
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13062 6007 1447 1215 335 72 127 0
OW 2 17 83 280 114 64 69 1
VODI 11 2 36 280 143 117 137 11
ODI 0 3 14 167 162 163 268 63
CDI 0 0 7 135 226 387 1111 72
VCDI 0 0 3 48 146 446 6288 4818

Date: 2021-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13488 5979 1654 898 271 100 78 0
OW 2 2 132 264 94 73 72 0
VODI 11 2 53 245 195 143 155 4
ODI 0 2 12 184 169 180 330 11
CDI 0 0 5 153 233 492 1502 13
VCDI 0 0 3 77 106 251 6162 4359
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13488 5971 1608 856 308 137 103 0
OW 5 10 117 211 93 70 90 0
VODI 8 2 87 251 132 138 197 7
ODI 0 2 29 194 183 221 356 10
CDI 0 0 12 177 217 363 1380 11
VCDI 0 0 6 132 135 310 6173 4359

Date: 2021-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13627 6240 1065 1006 261 144 59 0
OW 8 6 57 242 137 98 76 0
VODI 5 2 27 298 197 206 118 5
ODI 0 2 19 163 181 247 301 5
CDI 0 0 12 155 385 676 1247 6
VCDI 0 0 1 81 153 825 5637 4179
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13637 6238 1012 943 299 181 92 0
OW 3 8 79 225 108 121 67 1
VODI 0 4 48 259 147 215 161 8
ODI 0 0 20 210 205 265 343 7
CDI 0 0 18 160 391 649 1365 0
VCDI 0 0 4 148 164 765 5410 4179


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