Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-04-15

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-04-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12652 6027 1033 504 283 59 26 0
OW 0 136 271 163 113 62 36 0
VODI 0 26 246 319 138 109 114 0
ODI 0 2 127 228 146 158 251 1
CDI 0 1 77 190 156 260 710 13
VCDI 0 2 167 373 610 626 7549 4195
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12731 6295 1490 572 194 107 35 0
OW 0 10 254 202 134 88 50 0
VODI 0 2 440 238 155 146 109 0
ODI 0 0 183 193 200 170 206 0
CDI 0 0 79 181 217 230 1232 14
VCDI 0 0 142 341 279 449 6746 4045
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12901 5901 1264 608 425 68 44 0
OW 0 6 210 181 179 89 30 0
VODI 0 0 150 194 241 225 68 0
ODI 0 0 86 266 230 205 156 0
CDI 0 0 54 169 177 197 830 1
VCDI 0 0 44 137 319 1093 7376 4035
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12901 5899 1289 641 459 78 64 0
OW 0 8 188 149 163 94 27 0
VODI 0 0 137 174 234 204 55 0
ODI 0 0 93 274 211 204 142 0
CDI 0 0 53 184 171 196 732 1
VCDI 0 0 48 133 333 1101 7484 4035

Date: 2021-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13397 6092 1325 612 263 51 39 0
OW 0 18 145 238 201 73 56 0
VODI 0 2 111 159 246 112 80 0
ODI 0 0 48 120 163 170 195 1
CDI 0 0 19 103 165 227 750 28
VCDI 0 0 16 109 176 532 6531 5586
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13397 6027 1151 577 277 71 99 0
OW 0 51 208 152 112 49 40 0
VODI 0 25 122 176 162 81 74 0
ODI 0 8 66 116 147 78 113 0
CDI 0 1 64 113 222 219 641 28
VCDI 0 0 53 207 294 667 6684 5587

Date: 2021-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13468 6132 1481 688 264 61 46 0
OW 0 12 131 243 150 56 56 0
VODI 0 2 79 206 178 104 78 0
ODI 0 0 32 116 133 154 161 26
CDI 0 0 20 104 193 196 856 79
VCDI 0 0 5 104 256 360 6752 5177
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13468 6057 1355 534 212 77 80 0
OW 0 54 166 174 95 31 48 0
VODI 0 29 106 255 144 64 79 1
ODI 0 6 61 180 130 100 123 34
CDI 0 0 48 141 251 218 790 83
VCDI 0 0 12 177 342 441 6829 5164

Date: 2021-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13374 6125 1468 577 322 98 78 0
OW 0 15 246 246 136 61 54 0
VODI 0 0 144 176 208 118 97 0
ODI 0 0 51 107 136 145 158 0
CDI 0 0 15 91 205 245 1140 4
VCDI 0 0 10 85 183 347 6863 4831
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13374 6070 1316 498 270 115 120 0
OW 0 46 230 184 90 53 51 0
VODI 0 19 187 204 124 54 85 0
ODI 0 5 115 141 170 100 183 1
CDI 0 0 61 132 293 297 1162 8
VCDI 0 0 25 123 243 395 6789 4826


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