Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-02-11

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12760 5973 777 471 235 94 10 0
OW 0 34 103 119 113 124 18 0
VODI 0 13 84 103 109 187 37 1
ODI 0 6 40 81 137 216 65 6
CDI 0 5 28 86 172 377 195 51
VCDI 0 0 57 119 196 819 7896 6242
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12502 5927 651 555 172 81 15 0
OW 0 73 81 168 87 52 19 0
VODI 0 45 57 144 143 104 38 2
ODI 0 13 44 91 105 156 78 2
CDI 0 3 52 84 112 395 273 28
VCDI 0 2 28 117 169 1051 9410 5030
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12303 5795 781 443 231 181 49 0
OW 0 29 99 110 73 111 40 0
VODI 0 8 58 112 108 142 89 0
ODI 0 0 27 66 81 139 111 1
CDI 0 0 16 59 86 218 342 8
VCDI 0 0 11 40 109 548 9640 5895
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12303 5792 783 449 236 187 50 0
OW 0 31 91 102 71 99 40 0
VODI 0 9 59 111 102 138 89 0
ODI 0 0 30 61 79 138 95 1
CDI 0 0 18 60 84 215 321 8
VCDI 0 0 11 47 116 562 9676 5895

Date: 2021-02-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12717 5763 638 493 171 118 40 0
OW 0 45 70 117 91 55 30 0
VODI 0 11 72 84 138 108 79 0
ODI 0 2 23 60 90 152 144 0
CDI 0 0 20 59 112 317 396 41
VCDI 0 0 12 34 86 322 7440 8009
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12717 5710 578 433 188 149 68 0
OW 0 72 65 109 65 61 43 0
VODI 0 28 78 90 93 102 118 0
ODI 0 7 56 70 80 112 121 0
CDI 0 4 30 96 135 252 375 31
VCDI 0 0 28 49 127 396 7404 8019

Date: 2021-02-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12933 5745 681 311 233 106 38 0
OW 0 37 103 95 99 71 28 0
VODI 0 11 94 80 118 115 59 0
ODI 0 4 43 51 88 102 129 0
CDI 0 4 37 69 126 249 455 31
VCDI 0 7 40 42 127 493 8748 6357
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12933 5668 570 272 242 164 75 0
OW 0 86 105 67 63 66 51 0
VODI 0 36 123 77 76 95 84 0
ODI 0 7 80 76 73 81 168 0
CDI 0 4 63 94 139 235 477 18
VCDI 0 7 57 62 198 495 8602 6370

Date: 2021-02-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13159 5693 638 282 188 91 29 0
OW 0 74 154 68 76 47 23 0
VODI 0 43 126 88 89 95 48 1
ODI 0 13 77 70 70 98 84 11
CDI 0 8 75 100 126 188 413 94
VCDI 0 28 96 78 181 467 7334 7536
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13159 5571 517 252 236 164 89 0
OW 0 119 131 43 44 62 41 0
VODI 0 77 154 67 52 84 78 2
ODI 0 32 113 78 49 68 104 3
CDI 0 18 143 124 118 163 473 39
VCDI 0 42 108 122 231 445 7146 7598


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