Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-02-04

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13246 6053 801 385 211 80 29 0
OW 0 79 157 113 92 72 43 0
VODI 0 44 131 105 120 114 68 0
ODI 0 16 64 73 101 173 84 0
CDI 0 14 44 77 82 310 264 6
VCDI 0 1 73 90 124 586 8000 6034
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12811 6124 914 395 229 108 14 0
OW 0 43 115 106 116 97 16 0
VODI 0 19 96 123 128 172 42 1
ODI 0 8 60 102 135 236 122 44
CDI 0 5 49 75 138 273 350 131
VCDI 0 2 29 152 219 556 8430 5374
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-02-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12857 6132 737 434 162 55 11 0
OW 0 90 87 114 103 93 26 0
VODI 0 40 102 112 109 125 58 1
ODI 0 13 66 103 135 158 86 7
CDI 0 5 62 110 152 316 263 99
VCDI 0 0 141 183 249 567 8016 5980
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12857 6136 749 442 183 70 18 0
OW 0 81 81 114 83 86 23 0
VODI 0 42 94 100 109 122 53 1
ODI 0 13 66 111 136 184 84 8
CDI 0 8 55 109 149 294 249 100
VCDI 0 0 150 180 250 558 8033 5978

Date: 2021-02-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12570 5948 708 508 204 59 16 0
OW 0 56 115 118 116 55 18 0
VODI 0 29 84 139 164 122 45 0
ODI 0 8 50 86 133 194 119 0
CDI 0 4 30 90 237 264 375 47
VCDI 0 16 19 88 200 810 8750 5565
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12570 5887 678 497 233 85 34 0
OW 0 79 81 111 104 70 33 0
VODI 0 46 79 115 124 118 52 0
ODI 0 20 63 78 108 118 84 0
CDI 0 11 62 90 234 206 270 39
VCDI 0 18 43 138 251 907 8850 5573

Date: 2021-02-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12244 5810 872 420 268 175 20 0
OW 0 34 106 118 98 106 23 0
VODI 0 6 66 97 128 169 50 0
ODI 0 0 33 41 100 190 85 0
CDI 0 0 15 40 106 341 389 1
VCDI 0 0 5 36 103 677 9376 5811
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12244 5782 846 423 283 188 47 0
OW 0 39 95 87 93 128 33 0
VODI 0 24 64 85 86 183 69 0
ODI 0 4 40 44 96 184 94 0
CDI 0 1 28 48 93 261 285 4
VCDI 0 0 24 65 152 714 9415 5808

Date: 2021-02-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12131 5835 837 365 255 189 142 0
OW 0 15 87 100 69 83 88 0
VODI 0 1 65 103 75 125 132 0
ODI 0 0 31 59 67 100 151 0
CDI 0 0 13 54 76 177 412 3
VCDI 0 0 9 49 54 327 9049 6831
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12131 5772 811 355 261 204 196 0
OW 0 41 84 85 59 80 92 0
VODI 0 29 55 92 68 124 152 0
ODI 0 6 36 57 50 115 233 0
CDI 0 3 27 51 66 141 422 23
VCDI 0 0 29 90 92 337 8879 6811


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