Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-01-28

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14054 6319 693 339 67 109 4 0
OW 0 75 180 187 70 86 7 0
VODI 0 19 158 196 100 145 20 0
ODI 0 5 71 143 108 170 46 0
CDI 0 1 53 160 143 266 287 26
VCDI 0 0 18 86 262 904 8195 4387
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14104 6132 585 333 97 27 8 0
OW 0 57 110 177 72 51 14 0
VODI 0 11 102 161 115 128 38 1
ODI 0 1 48 128 110 173 81 2
CDI 0 0 23 106 131 234 311 23
VCDI 0 0 2 97 206 1177 6861 6122
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13365 6082 825 358 224 81 16 0
OW 0 54 147 110 107 84 29 0
VODI 0 9 118 112 133 160 45 0
ODI 0 0 48 77 117 206 80 0
CDI 0 0 25 74 104 303 236 60
VCDI 0 0 12 78 121 756 7064 6739
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13365 6101 864 371 242 83 16 0
OW 0 36 116 104 88 74 30 0
VODI 0 7 121 111 141 150 52 0
ODI 0 1 43 82 122 223 75 0
CDI 0 0 22 70 100 327 254 61
VCDI 0 0 9 71 113 733 7043 6738

Date: 2021-02-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12903 6136 972 389 173 105 11 0
OW 0 29 144 132 88 90 12 0
VODI 0 11 92 160 146 160 34 1
ODI 0 5 56 116 160 242 100 16
CDI 0 1 46 62 103 307 395 128
VCDI 0 0 9 97 144 422 8259 5703
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12903 6031 880 361 188 150 16 0
OW 0 84 147 110 73 87 16 0
VODI 0 46 116 158 140 160 50 1
ODI 0 14 65 113 123 202 112 10
CDI 0 6 60 78 109 280 358 121
VCDI 0 1 51 136 181 447 8259 5716

Date: 2021-02-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12753 6182 846 469 169 60 9 0
OW 0 85 106 105 107 87 23 0
VODI 0 29 98 133 100 160 44 1
ODI 0 10 64 126 140 194 93 35
CDI 0 3 58 111 125 249 333 127
VCDI 0 2 86 179 261 553 8471 5373
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12753 6117 772 462 198 99 40 0
OW 0 93 120 100 83 91 49 0
VODI 0 63 117 110 101 178 106 1
ODI 0 19 70 122 103 177 190 7
CDI 0 13 65 106 128 222 334 80
VCDI 0 6 114 223 289 536 8254 5448

Date: 2021-02-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12760 5973 777 471 235 94 10 0
OW 0 34 103 119 113 124 18 0
VODI 0 13 84 103 109 187 37 1
ODI 0 6 40 81 137 216 65 6
CDI 0 5 28 86 172 377 195 51
VCDI 0 0 57 119 196 819 7896 6242
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12760 5912 727 444 234 141 27 0
OW 0 58 93 129 100 129 24 0
VODI 0 40 79 105 120 206 50 2
ODI 0 13 48 73 123 248 87 4
CDI 0 4 59 73 172 322 332 105
VCDI 0 4 83 155 213 771 7701 6189


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