Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-01-21

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-01-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14010 6466 1140 399 362 273 2 0
OW 0 23 162 228 149 177 8 0
VODI 0 7 93 329 205 279 40 0
ODI 0 3 44 253 241 368 116 0
CDI 0 0 29 118 199 469 607 34
VCDI 0 0 8 73 148 383 5826 4888
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13994 6379 1063 423 126 136 21 0
OW 0 35 207 161 89 121 13 0
VODI 0 9 115 174 112 151 27 0
ODI 0 1 68 117 107 170 133 8
CDI 0 0 38 83 156 401 538 53
VCDI 0 0 9 90 227 720 7687 4197
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14155 6359 738 283 82 117 5 0
OW 0 88 242 164 60 89 6 0
VODI 0 18 160 189 97 154 16 0
ODI 0 4 66 135 119 156 40 0
CDI 0 0 42 142 157 306 295 2
VCDI 0 0 7 142 321 990 8911 3302
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14155 6369 788 319 83 116 6 0
OW 0 81 198 126 61 70 8 0
VODI 0 13 164 203 100 185 17 0
ODI 0 6 59 134 122 171 43 0
CDI 0 0 38 132 155 297 312 4
VCDI 0 0 8 141 315 973 8887 3300

Date: 2021-01-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14049 6079 714 428 100 41 6 0
OW 0 25 104 179 80 66 25 0
VODI 0 4 69 197 131 125 76 0
ODI 0 0 19 105 155 202 144 0
CDI 0 0 2 55 160 408 294 18
VCDI 0 0 7 68 212 1382 6936 5494
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14049 5960 619 390 112 69 19 0
OW 0 102 125 152 58 85 48 0
VODI 0 39 95 188 99 156 61 0
ODI 0 5 48 105 138 167 103 0
CDI 0 2 17 90 129 296 238 24
VCDI 0 0 11 107 302 1451 7012 5488

Date: 2021-01-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13609 6297 647 396 128 34 8 0
OW 0 51 138 142 81 81 15 0
VODI 0 16 96 146 102 124 64 0
ODI 0 4 48 100 91 149 119 0
CDI 0 0 41 90 97 231 331 20
VCDI 0 0 16 114 166 849 6743 6775
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13609 6174 602 383 147 61 28 0
OW 0 122 116 141 75 102 60 0
VODI 0 44 103 155 102 170 94 0
ODI 0 18 62 72 87 151 122 0
CDI 0 10 64 70 80 214 374 37
VCDI 0 0 39 167 174 770 6602 6758

Date: 2021-01-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13246 6053 801 385 211 80 29 0
OW 0 79 157 113 92 72 43 0
VODI 0 44 131 105 120 114 68 0
ODI 0 16 64 73 101 173 84 0
CDI 0 14 44 77 82 310 264 6
VCDI 0 1 73 90 124 586 8000 6034
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13246 5974 781 392 235 138 61 0
OW 0 107 130 96 88 105 52 0
VODI 0 69 126 91 111 172 118 0
ODI 0 31 74 72 85 190 132 0
CDI 0 21 77 87 83 247 302 12
VCDI 0 5 82 105 128 483 7823 6028


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