Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2021-01-14

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2021-01-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14606 6710 855 553 111 18 3 0
OW 0 156 324 331 101 48 7 0
VODI 0 109 266 488 221 116 19 0
ODI 0 35 183 238 212 139 81 0
CDI 0 11 84 245 218 269 261 0
VCDI 0 46 74 215 313 640 6962 2891
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14042 6777 1371 600 411 66 2 0
OW 0 54 148 172 213 104 13 0
VODI 0 19 133 230 249 408 39 0
ODI 0 0 62 190 237 400 110 1
CDI 0 0 59 92 157 424 587 15
VCDI 0 0 23 79 178 594 5690 4210
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2021-01-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14028 6540 1126 649 310 165 2 0
OW 0 66 178 205 177 158 10 0
VODI 0 34 133 395 264 235 45 0
ODI 0 9 96 248 365 234 92 2
CDI 0 0 63 152 218 351 503 2
VCDI 0 0 11 76 239 681 6358 3739
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14028 6557 1138 650 323 177 3 0
OW 0 52 165 195 148 154 8 0
VODI 0 33 133 398 271 192 53 0
ODI 0 7 95 239 376 265 100 2
CDI 0 0 60 144 209 344 529 2
VCDI 0 0 16 99 246 692 6317 3739

Date: 2021-01-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13993 6402 1118 443 152 154 23 0
OW 0 22 222 146 88 103 25 0
VODI 0 1 108 143 138 148 79 2
ODI 0 0 57 100 169 260 291 9
CDI 0 0 13 73 163 432 910 27
VCDI 0 0 0 30 145 425 7324 4221
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13993 6363 1027 374 199 235 33 0
OW 0 35 213 136 55 127 29 2
VODI 0 19 126 158 101 134 149 15
ODI 0 6 80 91 119 207 260 11
CDI 0 2 65 108 153 279 610 15
VCDI 0 0 7 68 228 540 7571 4216

Date: 2021-01-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14023 6362 975 320 129 108 16 0
OW 0 40 240 168 102 103 9 0
VODI 0 7 123 181 119 157 16 0
ODI 0 0 44 108 125 184 58 0
CDI 0 0 28 97 116 354 358 12
VCDI 0 0 7 93 216 949 7986 4226
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14023 6283 937 312 167 256 19 0
OW 0 58 192 130 73 110 9 0
VODI 0 39 112 181 116 128 29 16
ODI 0 22 48 120 116 219 117 27
CDI 0 7 83 110 133 363 502 13
VCDI 0 0 45 114 202 779 7767 4182

Date: 2021-01-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14054 6319 693 339 67 109 4 0
OW 0 75 180 187 70 86 7 0
VODI 0 19 158 196 100 145 20 0
ODI 0 5 71 143 108 170 46 0
CDI 0 1 53 160 143 266 287 26
VCDI 0 0 18 86 262 904 8195 4387
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14054 6247 651 345 125 257 9 0
OW 0 94 166 150 49 103 15 0
VODI 0 52 151 167 85 177 44 0
ODI 0 21 87 136 67 134 109 9
CDI 0 5 55 167 122 262 373 47
VCDI 0 0 63 146 302 747 8009 4357


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