Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2020-12-10

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-12-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17749 7342 1042 405 194 108 21 0
OW 0 172 237 162 141 99 15 0
VODI 0 20 123 175 179 146 50 0
ODI 0 5 47 100 162 157 74 0
CDI 0 0 16 49 143 165 247 0
VCDI 0 0 4 53 195 379 4041 3942
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17635 7210 710 387 83 89 21 0
OW 5 92 131 213 111 87 31 0
VODI 0 19 56 191 144 164 95 0
ODI 0 10 19 96 141 279 163 0
CDI 0 3 13 48 163 476 442 0
VCDI 0 0 2 24 71 368 4793 3574
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-12-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17095 7490 837 266 131 121 10 0
OW 1 79 179 146 109 80 24 0
VODI 0 19 108 149 140 197 63 0
ODI 0 0 31 66 131 230 134 0
CDI 0 0 9 61 136 408 424 0
VCDI 0 0 1 15 87 493 5207 3482
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17095 7517 867 300 142 114 18 0
OW 1 57 164 116 94 88 14 0
VODI 0 13 95 145 142 183 63 0
ODI 0 1 31 60 126 225 110 0
CDI 0 0 5 61 133 378 388 0
VCDI 0 0 3 21 97 541 5269 3482

Date: 2020-12-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15873 7153 1466 459 219 171 32 0
OW 0 15 222 128 130 129 39 0
VODI 0 1 137 168 147 163 73 0
ODI 0 0 36 92 116 256 208 0
CDI 0 0 9 53 116 211 669 7
VCDI 0 0 1 9 30 140 4389 5092
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15871 7110 1324 433 289 279 47 0
OW 2 48 227 115 95 142 46 0
VODI 0 11 189 117 71 110 125 0
ODI 0 0 96 126 99 81 157 0
CDI 0 0 32 95 134 210 433 8
VCDI 0 0 3 23 70 248 4602 5091

Date: 2020-12-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15963 7241 839 437 160 109 11 0
OW 0 74 186 174 100 116 29 0
VODI 0 17 157 197 134 147 69 0
ODI 0 1 66 129 108 143 97 0
CDI 0 0 33 86 139 263 292 9
VCDI 0 0 8 33 93 428 5675 4396
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15957 7171 786 476 228 180 33 0
OW 6 122 156 171 94 148 64 0
VODI 0 33 182 156 83 126 122 0
ODI 0 5 93 111 89 92 177 5
CDI 0 1 46 95 101 167 275 31
VCDI 0 1 26 47 139 493 5502 4369

Date: 2020-12-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15995 7019 518 338 147 70 6 0
OW 21 189 114 158 112 155 38 0
VODI 0 59 125 142 118 146 65 0
ODI 0 14 77 111 114 184 80 1
CDI 0 11 30 89 80 256 255 17
VCDI 0 3 22 61 78 479 5779 4883
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15998 6965 520 376 167 147 27 0
OW 17 175 98 125 90 172 43 0
VODI 1 84 112 150 152 237 114 0
ODI 0 27 86 91 92 168 224 22
CDI 0 13 39 75 65 177 344 39
VCDI 0 31 31 82 83 389 5471 4840


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