Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2020-08-06

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21159 6177 2457 687 378 83 47 0
OW 0 0 69 124 135 90 126 0
VODI 0 0 29 46 119 130 462 0
ODI 0 0 2 46 62 113 1525 1
CDI 0 0 0 11 34 28 1947 2059
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22288 5855 1902 712 246 172 47 0
OW 0 0 48 166 101 95 89 0
VODI 0 0 11 103 150 176 247 0
ODI 0 0 4 39 123 289 1540 153
CDI 0 0 4 3 18 118 2009 1439
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 0 10 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23132 5767 1384 655 153 72 61 0
OW 0 4 77 174 77 70 126 0
VODI 0 1 22 148 104 132 424 0
ODI 0 0 1 30 71 226 1771 428
CDI 0 0 2 12 16 64 1481 1461
VCDI 0 0 0 2 0 2 9 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23132 5769 1401 669 162 90 78 0
OW 0 3 60 157 65 51 117 0
VODI 0 0 22 143 101 134 443 0
ODI 0 0 3 36 73 219 1711 451
CDI 0 0 0 15 20 67 1513 1438
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 5 10 0

Date: 2020-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23352 6131 1079 470 210 135 79 0
OW 0 2 67 160 78 80 62 0
VODI 0 0 22 141 165 242 230 0
ODI 0 0 4 70 123 291 1488 247
CDI 0 0 2 4 6 14 1518 1605
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 30 50
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23352 6119 1048 495 229 170 133 0
OW 0 14 88 99 63 82 166 0
VODI 0 0 32 149 142 227 618 38
ODI 0 0 6 68 106 229 1375 738
CDI 0 0 0 33 42 54 1102 1126
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 2 13 0

Date: 2020-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23376 5995 1075 640 307 161 105 0
OW 0 0 27 121 144 123 87 0
VODI 0 0 10 59 172 344 320 1
ODI 0 0 0 31 82 262 1639 331
CDI 0 0 0 6 5 12 1252 1448
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 10 12
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23376 5993 1048 607 315 185 167 0
OW 0 2 59 88 119 140 183 0
VODI 0 0 5 104 168 291 785 34
ODI 0 0 0 35 67 219 1335 888
CDI 0 0 0 22 41 67 932 870
VCDI 0 0 0 1 0 2 11 0

Date: 2020-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22865 6213 1650 605 322 139 48 0
OW 0 1 69 146 174 120 75 0
VODI 0 0 18 120 200 341 299 0
ODI 0 0 4 35 75 490 1856 183
CDI 0 0 2 4 8 34 1138 906
VCDI 0 0 0 0 5 6 8 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 22865 6212 1619 590 343 155 103 0
OW 0 2 90 143 136 168 149 0
VODI 0 0 25 106 191 336 901 9
ODI 0 0 8 47 81 344 1382 642
CDI 0 0 0 24 28 122 886 438
VCDI 0 0 1 0 5 5 3 0


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