Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2020-05-14

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12115 6089 1369 1253 613 171 51 0
OW 11 0 116 177 257 141 80 0
VODI 0 0 95 187 281 374 181 0
ODI 0 0 33 101 210 519 374 2
CDI 0 0 19 61 122 402 1040 4
VCDI 0 0 19 35 72 307 6910 4368
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12144 6451 1029 1532 445 77 48 0
OW 0 15 115 223 221 94 70 0
VODI 0 7 57 212 315 304 209 1
ODI 0 0 18 139 213 548 447 5
CDI 0 0 12 57 150 351 1835 6
VCDI 0 0 5 34 97 417 5709 4547
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12281 6560 1185 1262 756 199 91 0
OW 0 3 111 345 304 169 122 0
VODI 0 0 61 209 368 376 276 5
ODI 0 0 40 114 250 365 383 7
CDI 0 0 39 82 231 572 944 4
VCDI 0 0 18 81 159 369 5636 4182
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12281 6560 1213 1371 841 217 99 0
OW 0 3 79 226 252 176 106 0
VODI 0 0 64 221 317 312 248 4
ODI 0 0 43 109 238 391 402 8
CDI 0 0 35 83 261 573 947 3
VCDI 0 0 20 83 159 381 5650 4183

Date: 2020-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12771 6453 1987 1405 497 150 109 0
OW 0 25 248 320 205 85 90 3
VODI 0 0 123 222 388 255 149 10
ODI 0 0 47 91 275 482 425 3
CDI 0 0 52 100 186 266 1692 0
VCDI 0 0 12 13 41 68 4722 4189
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12771 6468 1963 1350 568 199 175 0
OW 0 6 171 244 187 136 113 2
VODI 0 4 149 238 228 332 280 10
ODI 0 0 82 129 270 249 405 4
CDI 0 0 61 142 240 252 1341 1
VCDI 0 0 43 48 99 138 4873 4188

Date: 2020-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13050 6531 1903 1439 674 254 137 1
OW 0 19 160 243 285 173 94 5
VODI 0 2 63 98 290 439 261 9
ODI 0 0 36 61 123 225 501 1
CDI 0 0 30 100 108 206 2291 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 15 27 4055 4248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13050 6529 1781 1227 662 311 205 0
OW 0 11 149 231 145 214 147 5
VODI 0 10 117 214 235 279 329 10
ODI 0 2 78 89 252 214 475 1
CDI 0 0 55 146 143 203 2032 4
VCDI 0 0 12 36 58 103 4151 4244

Date: 2020-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13771 6424 1449 1890 594 166 132 1
OW 0 5 73 286 317 164 107 11
VODI 0 0 43 129 261 377 332 3
ODI 0 0 30 78 93 231 587 1
CDI 0 0 22 86 133 323 2325 0
VCDI 0 0 7 6 17 199 3996 3490
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13771 6403 1332 1635 610 295 217 0
OW 0 21 98 290 177 215 166 10
VODI 0 4 89 289 270 213 332 5
ODI 0 1 45 134 171 159 505 1
CDI 0 0 58 120 166 395 2047 0
VCDI 0 0 2 7 21 183 4212 3490


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