Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2020-05-07

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2020-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
...observations not yet available ...observations not yet available

Date: 2020-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12370 5949 1218 990 563 284 45 0
OW 11 0 87 150 178 184 61 0
VODI 5 0 24 156 253 314 203 3
ODI 0 0 5 162 185 381 674 9
CDI 0 0 1 39 90 332 1608 20
VCDI 0 0 0 12 32 154 6768 4639
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2020-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12354 5844 1454 987 705 227 40 0
OW 12 0 95 167 242 163 61 0
VODI 0 0 25 208 269 382 178 0
ODI 0 0 7 90 218 620 339 3
CDI 0 0 2 67 108 455 1217 3
VCDI 0 0 0 28 28 235 6961 4365
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12361 5841 1472 1016 755 261 64 0
OW 5 3 76 162 195 139 53 0
VODI 0 0 27 175 247 357 170 0
ODI 0 0 8 96 226 530 278 2
CDI 0 0 0 70 114 511 1154 4
VCDI 0 0 0 28 33 284 7077 4365

Date: 2020-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12266 6459 1159 1068 567 51 44 0
OW 0 17 133 209 184 72 37 0
VODI 0 3 89 247 387 222 140 0
ODI 0 0 21 132 334 612 418 3
CDI 0 0 14 52 164 475 1668 8
VCDI 0 0 8 27 127 480 5759 4503
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12266 6469 1174 1174 656 157 75 0
OW 0 9 74 115 202 95 80 0
VODI 0 1 67 189 332 302 194 0
ODI 0 0 61 119 217 316 359 3
CDI 0 0 34 78 142 390 1115 7
VCDI 0 0 14 60 214 652 6243 4504

Date: 2020-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12100 6516 1040 1703 462 90 59 0
OW 0 5 88 336 250 148 109 0
VODI 0 3 51 209 324 364 253 3
ODI 0 0 38 86 268 473 412 4
CDI 0 0 18 79 242 589 1159 5
VCDI 0 0 9 53 147 457 5635 4372
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12100 6518 1029 1756 570 226 114 0
OW 0 5 58 206 171 145 111 0
VODI 0 1 47 226 296 351 248 0
ODI 0 0 38 125 229 304 364 6
CDI 0 0 36 74 265 483 921 9
VCDI 0 0 36 79 162 612 5869 4369

Date: 2020-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12179 6513 1494 1605 633 176 117 0
OW 0 4 162 338 239 232 102 0
VODI 0 0 83 264 334 332 290 7
ODI 0 0 52 127 217 289 366 7
CDI 0 0 41 113 214 554 836 6
VCDI 0 0 32 78 186 313 5484 4140
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12179 6506 1477 1598 669 358 162 0
OW 0 9 106 209 166 117 118 0
VODI 0 2 118 288 270 228 298 4
ODI 0 0 52 169 238 188 317 8
CDI 0 0 49 157 255 531 710 4
VCDI 0 0 62 104 225 474 5590 4144


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