Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2019-09-19

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-09-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24807 4772 1021 456 80 8 2 0
OW 0 20 150 155 48 13 6 0
VODI 0 6 62 128 128 68 21 0
ODI 0 0 13 42 99 109 109 0
CDI 0 0 1 19 98 91 1290 167
VCDI 0 0 0 1 5 4 1483 2677
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25035 5094 478 454 34 11 6 0
OW 0 228 118 85 31 7 2 0
VODI 0 87 141 178 72 30 12 0
ODI 0 31 56 119 88 46 38 0
CDI 0 7 38 89 134 175 802 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 7 48 2303 2074
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-09-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24978 4905 549 376 57 13 0 0
OW 0 184 146 74 43 5 0 0
VODI 0 71 150 167 100 32 9 0
ODI 0 10 49 117 148 65 33 0
CDI 0 1 14 48 157 188 624 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 11 60 2531 2239
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24978 4931 588 405 69 12 0 0
OW 0 164 123 76 41 8 0 0
VODI 0 66 142 151 99 39 16 0
ODI 0 6 45 111 161 74 45 0
CDI 0 4 10 38 133 168 489 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 13 62 2647 2239

Date: 2019-09-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24755 5152 601 449 80 4 1 0
OW 0 48 141 123 44 6 0 0
VODI 0 5 41 198 84 24 11 0
ODI 0 0 9 81 165 139 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 160 304 465 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 31 122 2598 2222
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24755 4983 540 452 128 8 1 0
OW 0 142 100 63 34 12 0 0
VODI 0 64 108 165 76 59 12 0
ODI 0 16 32 126 156 130 52 0
CDI 0 0 12 70 147 274 520 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 23 116 2556 2222

Date: 2019-09-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24308 5531 714 464 84 5 1 0
OW 0 18 95 147 65 13 0 0
VODI 0 9 51 103 124 55 14 0
ODI 0 0 16 45 127 153 64 0
CDI 0 0 1 32 101 246 596 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 45 93 2550 2270
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24308 5400 586 461 133 15 1 0
OW 0 99 114 79 53 27 3 0
VODI 0 38 110 140 123 101 12 0
ODI 0 18 43 60 113 183 78 0
CDI 0 3 23 44 69 143 594 0
VCDI 0 0 1 26 55 96 2537 2270

Date: 2019-09-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24091 5460 853 443 109 5 1 0
OW 0 18 88 116 109 16 1 0
VODI 0 16 56 73 137 88 9 0
ODI 0 3 26 48 78 121 76 0
CDI 0 0 6 36 55 240 473 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 15 156 2789 2346
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24091 5315 736 408 154 24 1 0
OW 0 98 82 62 46 48 3 0
VODI 0 54 129 123 116 125 15 0
ODI 0 21 47 61 89 136 115 0
CDI 0 9 30 43 70 171 388 0
VCDI 0 0 5 21 28 122 2827 2346


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