Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2019-07-25

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17182 9054 1653 898 333 82 16 0
OW 0 50 95 178 167 117 37 0
VODI 0 7 37 169 312 423 185 0
ODI 0 0 10 59 214 549 575 0
CDI 0 0 2 12 49 211 2964 2042
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 24 449
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18083 8548 1662 904 214 65 17 0
OW 0 3 59 185 158 96 16 0
VODI 0 0 27 179 433 340 72 0
ODI 0 0 3 65 300 476 456 1
CDI 0 0 1 10 26 161 2914 2666
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 15 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18400 8323 1494 1035 235 43 8 0
OW 0 1 60 180 204 93 28 0
VODI 0 0 18 227 531 305 127 0
ODI 0 0 13 93 213 399 605 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 51 123 2746 2579
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 12 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 18400 8321 1507 1059 281 66 10 0
OW 0 3 48 167 201 93 26 0
VODI 0 0 18 225 465 276 134 0
ODI 0 0 12 83 241 387 662 0
CDI 0 0 0 13 46 142 2675 2579
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 0

Date: 2019-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19558 7876 1369 678 142 34 3 0
OW 0 1 127 168 121 60 21 0
VODI 0 0 85 268 474 209 113 0
ODI 0 0 38 76 195 325 494 0
CDI 0 0 7 9 14 95 2311 1022
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 10 965 1291
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19558 7873 1380 707 195 79 14 0
OW 0 4 116 200 228 102 53 0
VODI 0 0 74 207 363 245 243 0
ODI 0 0 45 67 139 259 1226 0
CDI 0 0 11 18 21 48 2361 2313
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0

Date: 2019-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19764 7844 1283 668 160 30 3 0
OW 0 2 105 209 156 82 11 0
VODI 0 0 54 365 444 294 118 0
ODI 0 0 15 62 157 348 470 0
CDI 0 0 5 8 17 159 2315 1034
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 783 1187
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19764 7842 1284 699 252 72 13 0
OW 0 4 93 270 232 110 55 0
VODI 0 0 56 243 292 313 248 0
ODI 0 0 22 82 127 310 1364 46
CDI 0 0 7 18 31 115 2010 2175
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0

Date: 2019-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20278 7132 1572 605 176 27 4 0
OW 0 1 144 267 186 61 19 0
VODI 0 0 61 377 407 264 130 0
ODI 0 0 17 106 116 278 572 0
CDI 0 0 8 9 19 135 2341 1127
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 446 1273
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 20278 7133 1585 731 296 73 18 0
OW 0 0 97 252 230 81 63 0
VODI 0 0 88 264 258 292 333 0
ODI 0 0 24 100 103 238 1504 137
CDI 0 0 8 17 18 81 1585 2263
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0


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