Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2019-02-28

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2019-02-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13683 5695 847 360 222 118 56 0
OW 0 46 161 100 76 73 46 0
VODI 0 13 94 123 113 122 108 0
ODI 0 0 35 96 140 210 193 0
CDI 0 0 27 63 125 221 613 9
VCDI 0 0 5 19 118 248 5865 8116
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13523 5895 987 338 193 45 33 0
OW 0 51 187 140 120 49 35 0
VODI 0 0 78 150 164 140 99 0
ODI 0 0 23 97 168 178 214 0
CDI 0 0 7 69 141 286 534 11
VCDI 0 0 0 37 147 647 7057 6316
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2019-02-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13488 5875 826 417 153 37 15 0
OW 0 34 199 161 88 38 20 0
VODI 0 9 92 174 175 91 63 0
ODI 0 2 28 147 157 143 176 0
CDI 0 2 13 84 169 246 473 63
VCDI 0 0 5 90 235 961 7890 5320
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13488 5888 834 422 163 37 17 0
OW 0 22 190 155 90 41 20 0
VODI 0 8 93 190 176 99 82 0
ODI 0 2 27 139 149 141 171 0
CDI 0 2 17 81 170 248 461 63
VCDI 0 0 2 86 229 950 7886 5320

Date: 2019-03-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13306 5754 544 495 227 206 43 0
OW 0 89 117 142 101 85 51 0
VODI 0 25 65 165 110 152 84 0
ODI 0 0 11 170 157 241 164 0
CDI 0 0 2 92 133 338 563 10
VCDI 0 0 0 17 76 1106 8827 4491
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13306 5713 511 476 225 245 59 0
OW 0 107 116 97 58 70 39 0
VODI 0 41 76 153 106 108 72 0
ODI 0 6 27 155 126 144 116 0
CDI 0 1 6 128 163 370 385 5
VCDI 0 0 3 72 126 1191 9061 4496

Date: 2019-03-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12882 5712 907 468 275 117 79 0
OW 0 34 145 120 145 65 66 0
VODI 0 5 77 131 142 116 93 0
ODI 0 0 24 135 141 179 119 0
CDI 0 0 12 117 121 324 486 29
VCDI 0 0 29 69 119 585 8702 5389
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12882 5687 887 470 301 111 125 0
OW 0 52 128 97 114 56 62 0
VODI 0 12 99 110 142 112 85 0
ODI 0 0 37 132 130 162 136 0
CDI 0 0 13 149 132 327 403 16
VCDI 0 0 30 82 124 618 8734 5402

Date: 2019-03-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12786 5639 1010 469 240 135 110 0
OW 0 29 128 138 113 84 60 0
VODI 0 3 83 105 123 136 95 0
ODI 0 0 24 85 136 182 172 4
CDI 0 0 20 65 112 298 627 31
VCDI 0 0 53 114 119 381 7936 6314
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12786 5629 984 491 263 145 143 0
OW 0 30 113 92 90 76 61 0
VODI 0 12 96 119 108 135 90 0
ODI 0 0 37 77 126 189 161 3
CDI 0 0 28 73 112 257 547 34
VCDI 0 0 60 124 144 414 7998 6312


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