Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2018-12-13

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-12-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16819 7486 821 226 37 47 119 0
OW 0 187 154 138 40 11 26 0
VODI 0 182 186 163 139 51 46 0
ODI 0 75 85 125 116 60 134 1
CDI 0 63 70 105 143 143 312 11
VCDI 0 36 125 233 243 354 5374 3473
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16559 7723 613 391 178 65 127 0
OW 0 142 107 135 137 99 46 0
VODI 0 70 65 117 146 182 80 0
ODI 0 26 45 77 146 303 142 4
CDI 0 5 32 113 234 330 527 88
VCDI 0 0 17 91 173 410 4804 3610
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-12-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16157 7840 803 469 99 40 59 0
OW 0 140 145 194 69 29 23 0
VODI 0 83 106 202 202 79 40 0
ODI 0 10 78 109 180 129 107 2
CDI 0 3 37 105 187 274 477 21
VCDI 0 0 13 116 260 632 5582 3058
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16157 7823 825 489 101 33 60 0
OW 0 151 118 173 76 35 23 0
VODI 0 87 113 188 187 76 43 0
ODI 0 11 68 130 176 128 100 4
CDI 0 4 45 94 170 274 482 23
VCDI 0 0 13 121 287 637 5580 3054

Date: 2018-12-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16592 7419 1035 439 95 62 39 0
OW 0 49 168 233 99 61 21 0
VODI 0 13 107 236 142 107 28 0
ODI 0 0 36 111 164 158 79 0
CDI 0 0 8 86 105 350 466 25
VCDI 0 0 0 40 129 705 5432 3320
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16592 7259 949 447 110 66 42 0
OW 0 122 140 161 58 29 14 0
VODI 0 88 124 213 142 83 27 0
ODI 0 9 91 104 119 128 65 0
CDI 0 3 36 89 115 188 216 17
VCDI 0 0 14 131 190 949 5701 3328

Date: 2018-12-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16515 7418 888 396 83 16 41 0
OW 1 49 177 170 65 27 13 0
VODI 0 46 127 235 145 69 42 0
ODI 0 8 69 185 121 108 52 1
CDI 0 3 37 106 131 177 235 28
VCDI 0 0 1 53 135 460 5780 3946
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16514 7297 826 393 73 23 44 0
OW 2 116 187 149 71 12 11 0
VODI 0 68 116 198 118 70 28 0
ODI 0 29 79 159 122 93 65 1
CDI 0 11 75 126 132 172 208 34
VCDI 0 3 16 120 164 487 5807 3940

Date: 2018-12-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16955 6962 727 355 72 29 53 0
OW 6 124 187 135 67 28 31 0
VODI 0 78 141 168 125 62 74 0
ODI 0 42 90 126 135 101 60 0
CDI 0 14 78 96 112 179 237 38
VCDI 0 0 63 131 158 615 5661 3844
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16961 6893 699 389 98 63 69 0
OW 0 132 188 136 77 37 48 0
VODI 0 88 170 133 90 69 79 0
ODI 0 35 62 128 114 69 110 0
CDI 0 56 65 82 126 130 210 52
VCDI 0 16 102 143 164 646 5600 3830


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