Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2018-10-25

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-10-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24128 6093 475 236 122 38 1 0
OW 0 83 66 81 93 28 1 0
VODI 0 17 23 68 88 41 23 0
ODI 0 9 13 41 70 47 47 0
CDI 0 2 11 29 100 152 243 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 163 327 2497 2702
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24705 5812 469 283 96 30 4 0
OW 16 36 59 76 54 15 4 0
VODI 0 12 41 63 84 45 28 0
ODI 0 4 22 44 60 42 54 0
CDI 0 1 21 48 64 54 128 0
VCDI 0 0 4 30 104 262 2711 2574
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-10-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23786 6172 617 212 27 40 51 0
OW 0 165 147 125 46 35 20 0
VODI 0 10 54 72 65 51 34 0
ODI 0 0 20 37 59 63 46 0
CDI 0 0 15 22 50 112 137 0
VCDI 0 0 2 19 66 258 2636 2888
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 23786 6238 656 251 39 53 58 0
OW 0 100 110 98 56 31 20 0
VODI 0 9 53 64 55 52 40 0
ODI 0 0 20 34 54 52 42 0
CDI 0 0 13 21 49 97 135 0
VCDI 0 0 3 19 60 274 2629 2888

Date: 2018-10-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21924 7069 724 317 58 37 1 0
OW 11 41 226 163 84 85 5 0
VODI 0 8 128 132 143 170 19 0
ODI 0 0 16 13 41 177 71 0
CDI 0 0 2 9 19 149 236 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 4 172 2815 3089
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21926 7017 763 400 142 89 1 0
OW 9 73 203 119 60 78 0 0
VODI 0 20 78 68 73 131 18 0
ODI 0 6 25 20 36 146 67 0
CDI 0 2 13 10 19 134 96 0
VCDI 0 0 14 18 19 212 2965 3089

Date: 2018-10-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21094 7505 792 319 94 19 5 0
OW 0 88 175 174 104 17 16 0
VODI 0 16 97 196 300 65 38 0
ODI 0 1 23 43 52 95 87 0
CDI 0 0 12 20 47 88 173 0
VCDI 0 0 2 7 31 202 3065 3097
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21093 7429 778 375 201 37 35 0
OW 1 115 161 160 208 49 29 0
VODI 0 40 102 123 71 57 46 0
ODI 0 14 23 58 56 73 89 0
CDI 0 9 14 18 42 47 132 1
VCDI 0 3 23 25 50 223 3053 3096

Date: 2018-11-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21599 6692 715 266 107 61 4 0
OW 0 114 187 190 133 34 6 0
VODI 0 9 71 109 314 132 39 0
ODI 0 0 14 44 81 181 65 0
CDI 0 0 9 17 41 134 153 10
VCDI 0 0 2 5 31 145 2962 3483
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 21597 6581 718 318 170 119 22 0
OW 2 188 183 162 155 103 38 0
VODI 0 37 48 78 251 106 63 0
ODI 0 9 34 41 60 107 70 0
CDI 0 0 14 20 37 114 168 0
VCDI 0 0 1 12 34 138 2868 3493


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