Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2018-09-20

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25018 5646 1288 292 92 19 12 0
OW 0 0 72 69 59 21 4 0
VODI 0 0 23 85 95 69 3 0
ODI 0 0 6 41 132 177 69 0
CDI 0 0 1 9 57 213 664 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 98 1871 1915
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25504 5706 791 232 35 9 6 0
OW 0 7 73 107 40 8 2 0
VODI 0 2 27 138 92 34 4 0
ODI 0 0 5 87 183 104 46 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 82 173 641 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 21 93 1876 2004
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25799 5437 716 196 49 18 6 0
OW 0 4 77 76 48 18 4 0
VODI 0 0 30 67 99 70 1 0
ODI 0 0 5 33 136 120 31 0
CDI 0 0 3 10 142 187 400 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 126 2178 2051
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25799 5440 716 179 50 22 5 0
OW 0 1 75 90 44 14 4 0
VODI 0 0 32 70 108 66 3 0
ODI 0 0 5 33 146 113 30 0
CDI 0 0 3 10 125 193 347 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 23 131 2231 2051

Date: 2018-09-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25817 5698 454 215 24 2 1 0
OW 0 40 65 76 28 6 2 0
VODI 0 16 43 81 66 33 8 0
ODI 0 3 10 56 92 74 47 0
CDI 0 3 7 24 55 255 310 0
VCDI 0 0 1 9 17 75 1806 2640
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25817 5531 381 155 16 3 1 0
OW 0 97 50 72 16 6 0 0
VODI 0 78 47 79 48 17 8 0
ODI 0 36 49 49 59 25 12 0
CDI 0 14 35 69 91 237 78 0
VCDI 0 4 18 37 52 157 2075 2640

Date: 2018-09-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25745 5663 382 220 47 3 1 0
OW 0 78 36 113 36 3 1 0
VODI 0 31 27 88 78 20 3 0
ODI 0 3 21 42 97 57 10 0
CDI 0 0 7 24 77 224 229 1
VCDI 0 0 0 7 29 173 1977 2606
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25745 5468 346 164 33 1 1 0
OW 0 101 24 69 27 3 0 0
VODI 0 82 25 116 63 17 2 0
ODI 0 57 14 49 69 19 6 0
CDI 0 59 34 49 110 152 71 2
VCDI 0 8 30 47 62 288 2141 2605

Date: 2018-09-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24934 6081 447 275 85 27 1 0
OW 0 100 30 47 101 16 0 0
VODI 0 41 42 34 122 44 18 0
ODI 0 14 13 33 55 86 19 0
CDI 0 0 15 13 51 204 278 2
VCDI 0 0 0 3 22 162 1740 3004
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24934 5927 437 251 81 25 1 0
OW 0 90 11 57 47 15 0 0
VODI 0 74 18 22 106 42 13 0
ODI 0 55 12 20 81 39 10 0
CDI 0 60 32 23 55 113 49 0
VCDI 0 30 37 32 66 305 1983 3006


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