Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2018-09-06

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 26194 5384 599 459 56 45 22 0
OW 0 22 62 148 102 25 15 0
VODI 0 1 37 126 190 91 72 0
ODI 0 0 2 47 123 195 254 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 16 146 2261 715
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 176 572
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25202 6210 800 362 83 29 20 0
OW 0 16 49 105 87 14 5 0
VODI 0 1 21 117 175 64 24 0
ODI 0 0 0 50 165 169 100 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 30 155 1512 313
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 8 924 1343
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-09-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24664 6523 842 443 71 17 6 0
OW 0 22 33 133 68 12 6 0
VODI 0 4 15 151 156 49 20 0
ODI 0 0 2 85 154 122 92 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 46 151 1453 195
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 15 974 1625
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24664 6533 853 476 76 16 6 0
OW 0 14 23 117 65 19 6 0
VODI 0 2 15 140 165 48 22 0
ODI 0 0 1 69 153 125 99 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 34 140 1274 105
VCDI 0 0 0 0 10 18 1144 1715

Date: 2018-09-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24934 5778 1078 450 108 36 7 0
OW 0 0 50 73 78 31 4 0
VODI 0 0 20 93 100 96 20 0
ODI 0 0 1 80 106 220 222 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 29 79 1317 373
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 45 1018 1707
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 24934 5778 1087 463 146 54 10 0
OW 0 0 49 66 53 40 8 0
VODI 0 0 11 97 102 116 28 0
ODI 0 0 2 66 81 151 166 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 39 85 1094 24
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 61 1282 2056

Date: 2018-09-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25059 5931 909 386 89 28 13 0
OW 0 5 50 71 56 38 9 0
VODI 0 0 26 71 80 94 31 0
ODI 0 0 8 71 120 162 142 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 85 185 1218 21
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 42 1239 1896
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25059 5929 915 415 110 62 35 0
OW 0 6 43 55 46 34 23 0
VODI 0 1 23 58 91 89 46 0
ODI 0 0 10 64 91 149 125 0
CDI 0 0 2 16 85 162 921 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 19 53 1502 1917

Date: 2018-09-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25018 5646 1288 292 92 19 12 0
OW 0 0 72 69 59 21 4 0
VODI 0 0 23 85 95 69 3 0
ODI 0 0 6 41 132 177 69 0
CDI 0 0 1 9 57 213 664 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 98 1871 1915
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 25018 5639 1302 340 159 72 28 0
OW 0 7 50 53 31 44 24 0
VODI 0 0 37 66 81 62 49 0
ODI 0 0 1 30 91 140 130 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 78 199 921 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 34 80 1471 1915


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