Validation of sea ice concentration

Bulletin date: 2018-06-14

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16119 6402 1335 1187 384 65 58 15
OW 0 1 96 235 199 100 74 7
VODI 0 0 48 200 270 200 214 2
ODI 0 0 28 108 129 231 425 1
CDI 0 0 6 111 149 327 1972 1
VCDI 0 0 0 9 9 111 3682 3649
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16121 6461 1427 1345 384 78 76 0
OW 0 0 75 227 186 70 76 0
VODI 0 0 17 171 248 175 172 0
ODI 0 0 9 81 186 359 486 0
CDI 0 0 2 19 58 292 2838 19
VCDI 0 0 0 1 3 27 2909 3561
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16231 6283 1689 1186 587 115 86 0
OW 0 0 54 138 211 133 67 0
VODI 0 0 33 133 210 335 288 0
ODI 0 0 14 79 116 275 849 0
CDI 0 0 2 2 25 177 2875 2
VCDI 0 0 0 2 4 10 2334 3614
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16231 6283 1690 1202 657 147 99 0
OW 0 0 49 118 157 148 70 0
VODI 0 0 36 134 214 328 323 0
ODI 0 0 15 78 89 247 805 0
CDI 0 0 2 6 32 164 2902 2
VCDI 0 0 0 2 4 11 2300 3614

Date: 2018-06-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16982 6658 1446 936 381 125 99 0
OW 0 1 89 145 185 101 64 0
VODI 0 0 52 162 210 240 162 2
ODI 0 0 9 43 122 639 796 3
CDI 0 0 2 5 22 181 2965 4
VCDI 0 0 0 5 7 12 1848 3456
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16982 6651 1425 986 484 205 135 0
OW 0 8 80 121 159 179 126 0
VODI 0 0 60 128 175 341 459 3
ODI 0 0 31 45 68 423 846 2
CDI 0 0 2 11 38 146 3346 29
VCDI 0 0 0 5 3 4 1022 3431

Date: 2018-06-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16939 6886 1656 955 305 49 101 0
OW 0 0 78 243 211 71 84 0
VODI 0 0 31 167 265 249 324 0
ODI 0 0 12 37 100 564 894 0
CDI 0 0 1 9 31 177 3027 17
VCDI 0 0 0 7 2 25 1611 3031
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16939 6880 1622 1026 433 96 155 0
OW 0 6 73 164 191 117 178 0
VODI 0 0 46 123 182 352 554 0
ODI 0 0 34 82 81 412 887 0
CDI 0 0 3 15 26 135 3293 97
VCDI 0 0 0 8 1 23 974 2951

Date: 2018-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16973 6846 1890 1011 325 57 148 0
OW 0 6 68 207 232 102 195 0
VODI 0 1 27 122 312 323 606 0
ODI 0 0 10 35 80 267 933 0
CDI 0 0 1 29 46 182 2562 15
VCDI 0 0 0 7 4 25 1501 3011
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 16973 6827 1869 1031 444 91 226 0
OW 0 26 60 123 212 151 171 0
VODI 0 0 43 176 208 315 631 0
ODI 0 0 23 53 106 249 1222 0
CDI 0 0 1 21 27 126 2962 110
VCDI 0 0 0 7 2 24 733 2916


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